Analysts warn we aren’t yet in ‘Fed put’ territory ahead of FOMC meeting

Cuts to interest rates unlikely as officials weigh labor market data and Trump tariffs take effect

article-image

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell | Federalreserve/"_DSC1894." (CC license

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


As Blockworks kicks off the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Fed officials will be gathering for their March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington. 

The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates as-is, continuing a pause to its rate-cutting schedule. After next week, the Fed won’t have another rate-setting meeting until May; odds of a cut then are only around 30%, CME data shows. 

Betting on a “Trump put” at this point is, dare I say, wishful thinking. President Trump announced additional tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the administration is going to proceed with the duties even if it means pushing the economy into a recession

A “Fed put” may not be entirely off the table, but it’s not coming anytime soon. Jerome Powell has made it clear that it will take substantial weakening in the labor market for central bankers to rethink the current pause. 

HSBC analysts said in a note this week that the Fed isn’t budging until the data does. Of course, worse data means increased recessionary fears and lower asset prices. We’re between a rock and a hard place here, they added.  

So it’s all a bit of a waiting game for now. The labor market looks okay, but tariffs could weigh on hiring and further anticipated DOGE layoffs have not yet been reflected in the data. 

Instead of doom-scrolling next week, we recommend coming to DAS, where you can spiral and speculate in real life.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research

article-image

The DeFi Education Fund has ideas on how the crypto-friendly SEC can bring Commissioner Peirce’s vision to life

article-image

“Be prepared to do more with less,” Framework Ventures’ Michael Anderson said

article-image

Q1 may have been “frustrating,” but things are looking brighter for Q2

article-image

Tokens worth 20% of the current supply of the TRUMP memecoin launched by the president are set to be unlocked tomorrow

article-image

A crypto-industry lawsuit is “moot” now that Joint Resolution 25 has been signed into law

article-image

Fed Chair Powell assured markets that the labor market is in “good place,” dependent on price stability