A market check-in after the latest BTC dip
Ledn’s John Glover is still looking for BTC to trade toward $126,000 over the next two months
Maquette.pro/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks
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Bitcoin’s price dipped below six figures for the first time in a week. Sounds like a good chance to check in.
Hours after dropping below $98,000, BTC rebounded to ~$102,000 Monday morning. The asset was trading around $99,400 at 2 pm ET.
Price fluctuates, we know. But identifying the factors at play can go a long way in helping new and recurring investors gain a better understanding of this growing asset class.
Ledn CIO John Glover acknowledged on Friday that President Donald Trump’s executive order was enough to keep BTC from selling off last week after achieving an all-time high near $109,000. But he argued there are plenty of market participants looking to take profit — or swap their BTC for other assets that’ve underperformed since Trump’s election win.
Another factor to consider is the strong correlation between bitcoin and equities, which Bitfinex analysts wrote “remains one of the most reliable market dynamics.”
They explained the 30-day rolling Pearson correlation between BTC, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq reached 0.7 — “highlighting a trend that isnʼt just coincidental but indicative of how bitcoin is increasingly treated like a risk-on major asset class.”
Thus, the Bitfinex analysts note, BTC “reacted with caution” after last week’s Bank of Japan rate hike and sharply fell due to “jitters” stemming from Chinaʼs ability to produce cheaper AI models through startup DeepSeek.
Bitcoin options implied volatility declined 13% over the course of last week, they added, “suggesting traders are not expecting to see elevated price action.”
Still, you’ve read here about the bullish signals. The latest crypto executive order and the end of SAB 121, sure — but also ongoing institutional investment into bitcoin ETFs, companies buying BTC, etc.
On those two points, the US spot BTC products nearly reached the $40 billion net inflow milestone last week after just over one year on the market.
MicroStrategy continues its big bitcoin purchases (scroll a bit for more on that) and more companies (like Critical Metals Corp., with a plan to buy $500 million of BTC) mull, and execute, similar acquisitions.
Blockworks’ David Canellis pointed out that today marks day 799 of a bull market that — if history repeats — could last about 1,000 days.
While corrections are normal within bull markets, Two Prime Digital Assets has observed more sophisticated market participants pulling volatility out of the market through long-term investing behavior and derivatives strategies — going as far to coin a term: “The Silent Put.”
“In short, a new cadre of bidders, including governments and corporate balance sheets, are willing to buy the dip without getting shaken out,” the firm wrote on X.
Glover said in a Friday statement he’s still looking for BTC to trade towards $126,000 over the next two months. That could be a near-term top as “those looking to lock in profits battling with those bulls that are late to the party,” he added.
When I followed up with Glover Monday after the latest correction, he said his thoughts haven’t changed.
He told me he’s expecting “lots of directionless volatility” as we hear from various levels of government (and the central bank) as to how immediate (or not) Trump’s promises may be implemented.
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