Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived

Predictions that the US election will fuel bitcoin’s price are set to be tested

article-image

Fuzail Khan MO/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Harry Potter ran headfirst into a brick wall at Platform 9¾ to transcend into the Wizarding World.

We’re about to do something similar with bitcoin.

This is it. After the next few days, there are no more immediate catalysts and prophecies to fulfill.

  1. The Bitcoin halving: The network cut issuance in half almost exactly 200 days ago. Cycle-maxis predicted it would inevitably lead to a supply shock one year later, as is tradition.
  2. US election: Always occurs six-to-eight months after the halving — and the past two elections have preceded a full bitcoin send to all-time highs.
This chart plots bitcoin rallies around the election against each other, as if they all started at once. The dotted line is Election Day (today), and the orange circles are halvings.

Bitcoin rallied from $720 to nearly $20,000 in the 400 or so days after Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. That’s over 27x in a little over a year.

BTC then went 4.2x — from $16,300 to $69,000— in the year following Biden’s win in 2020.

Brainiacs would, however, quickly point out that only two or three halving-election cycles tells us nothing statistically significant about anything. 

Bitcoin’s massive rallies over the years are then just price discovery. And perhaps, elections and halvings are less significant than the global liquidity cycle, for instance (which, coincidentally, is headed for an uptrend!)

While the global liquidity prophecy plays out over the longer-term, Trump’s odds on Polymarket have been tipped as an immediate driver of bitcoin’s price.

A god candle is inevitable if Trump wins, the thinking goes

The chart above maps the price of bitcoin (the area in green) to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, in orange. The shaded purple areas indicate when Trump’s odds and BTC/USD were correlated.

They only align about half the time, which probably says they’re not really correlated at all. Although, the two have closely tracked each other since early October.

Still, we’re in uncharted territory. Bitcoin hit all-time high before the halving this time around, an apparent anomaly in the cycle prophecy — just like The Boy Who Lived.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross.
  • Forward Guidance: Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin.
  • 0xResearch: Get alpha directly in your inbox — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
  • Lightspeed: All things Solana, in your inbox, every day from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
  • The Drop: The newsletter for crypto collectors and traders, covering games, tokens, apps, memes and more.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 18 - 20, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research

article-image

VC activity was slightly down month over month, according to TIE data

article-image

Here’s what we know about the bitcoin strategic reserve and the digital asset stockpile ahead of today’s summit

article-image

Liam Heeger was a core Solana Firedancer developer. Now, he’s building his own L1.

article-image

This crypto fund issuer is “looking for the rising stars” to put into the ETF wrapper

article-image

Ongoing tariff dynamics are being complemented by DOGE’s federal government employee layoffs

article-image

The chat function is still in beta for now