The price of bitcoin is at a ‘critical juncture’ 

BTC’s next major move “will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive,” Bitfinex analysts said

article-image

MediaStore/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


You probably saw bitcoin’s latest price plummet, briefly falling below $86,000 for the first time since November. It comes as the Bybit hack and SEC moves grab headlines — not to mention the relentless non-crypto macro developments.

Even before BTC’s drop, Bitfinex analysts laid out the scene. Bitcoin had mostly traded between $91,000 and $102,000 for weeks, rearing its head to a peak around $109,000 last month.

“Bitcoin remains at a critical juncture after nearly 90 days of consolidation,” they explained. “As market participants await a catalyst, bitcoinʼs next major move will likely be dictated by macroeconomic trends and could be decisive.”

Fast forward a day, and Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Joe Flynn note that BTC’s latest drop means it has broken the $92,000 support level (the cost basis for holders who bought within the last six months).     

“Selling has accelerated as short-term holders are less likely to tolerate unrealized losses,” they explained. “$86,000 is the last line of defense before the air pocket of trading activity that took place between $77,000 to $86,000.”

BTC’s price hovered around $86,950 at 2 pm ET. That’s down 5% in the past 24 hours. It’s a 9% drop from seven days ago and a 17% decrease over the last month.

Trading volumes remain near year-to-date lows and slightly above pre-election levels, Engel and Flynn added.

CoinShares research head James Butterfill attributed the flow of $571 million out of bitcoin investment products last week to “uncertainty around trade tariffs, inflation and monetary policy.”

The US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $516 million more leave their coffers yesterday, Farside Investors data shows — the highest level since Jan. 8. Those funds have now endured net outflows for five straight days.

Bitcoinʼs increasing correlation with traditional markets has exacerbated this “corrective phase” seen across crypto assets, Bitfinex analysts argue, noting the S&P 500ʼs fall below the 6,000 level.

And if you missed it, Blockworks’ David Canellis took a look at the timing of the last bull market’s 50% correction, and what that could signal this time around. 


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
  • Supply Shock: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research

article-image

The platform also rolled out 13 tokenized funds for institutions on the Connect platform

article-image

The company’s expanded lineup introduces new ETF products, as more and more issuers get into crypto funds

article-image

President Donald Trump announced a 10% levy on almost all goods and additional tariffs on so-called “worst offending” countries

article-image

Solana may be in “recomposition” mode, as new protocols put usefulness ahead of mere virality

article-image

The stablecoin issuer will have to contend with bigger players and the interest rates environment

article-image

The president reportedly was still working on his tariff policy plans late Tuesday evening