Hot employment report leads stocks lower, at least for now 

Odds of an interest rate cut later this month are all but out the window

article-image

rblfmr/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


It’s US Employment Report Day! December’s figures came in much stronger than expected. 

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 256,000 and blew past analysts’ forecast of 155,000 — significantly higher than November’s 212,000 positions added. The unemployment rate edged down just slightly, coming in at 4.1% vs. the expected 4.2%. 

There is such a thing as a too hot report, though. 

“There is a growing worry on Wall Street that inflation is making a comeback. While a strong labor market is good for the US, there are worries that too strong of a jobs market will put reflation back on the table,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro. 

The odds of an interest rate cut later this month are all but out the window, and chances central bankers opt to lower fed funds in March or even May aren’t looking great, either. 

US equities, after a decent start to the new year, are now solidly in the red for 2025 — likely an impact of diminished rate cut expectations and growing concern that the devastating fires in Los Angeles will come with significant financial consequences. 

Still, a resilient labor market and economic growth — which, according to the data, is where we currently stand — isn’t bad for stocks, according to Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. 

The employment situation bodes well for corporate profitability.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research

article-image

While Arizona’s governor could veto another crypto reserve bill, similar North Carolina and Texas laws are approaching the finish line

article-image

However, they noted there’s now an increased risk that unemployment and inflation will rise in the coming months. 

article-image

The network’s most ambitious upgrade since the Merge brings validator streamlining, smart account UX and doubled blobspace to Ethereum

article-image

Debate over extra Bitcoin use cases has returned, two years on from Ordinals

article-image

Altcoin season may be on a permanent pause as the market matures and paths grow more selective

article-image

Today’s blockchains are more like nervous systems without a brain — wiring without will