Aptos

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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US equities opened higher Friday morning, clawing back some of Thursday’s losses that saw the Nasdaq Composite and S&amp;P 500 indexes drop 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively.&nbsp;



The selloff was led by tech stocks, triggered by disappointing outlooks from giants Meta and Microsoft, both of which reported after the close yesterday.&nbsp;



Both Meta and Microsoft beat expectations on some earnings metrics, but you wouldn’t know that looking at the share prices. Analysts attribute Thursday’s drops (-4% for Microsoft and -3% for Meta during after hours trading) to disappointing projections from both companies.&nbsp;



Microsoft execs estimate between $68.1 billion and $69.1 billion in revenue for Q4, missing Wall Street’s forecast of $69.83 billion. The tech giant anticipates its cloud computing platform, which saw a 33% increase in quarter-over-quarter revenue during Q3, will slow during the final months of this year.&nbsp;



Meta similarly beat on earnings per share and revenue for the third quarter, but execs say its spending spree is going to continue through the end of 2024. They calculate capital expenditures for the year to come in between $38 billion and $40 billion. This is up from the range given during the company’s last quarterly earnings report. Meta is also forecasting a “significant” increase in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-boom-elon-musk-startup-valuation">AI-related</a> infrastructure expenses in 2025.&nbsp;



Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it wasn’t just Big Tech weighing on equities Thursday. Earnings across the board were disappointing (looking at you, Uber, Ebay and Intercontinental Exchange), plus economic data looks like we may see higher rates for a more sustained period of time.



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Major earnings week weighs on tech stocks 

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The historic trend of BTC rising in October ended up occurring again despite a rocky first half of the month and a rough final day. All said and done, the asset’s price rose nearly 11% during the month.



BTC started October around the $64,000 mark and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-price-gains">breached $66,000</a> a couple weeks in before breaching $73,000 earlier this week. Some attributed the run to heavy <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">bitcoin ETF inflows</a> and a possible Donald Trump victory as some polls (and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-polymarket-election-manipulation">betting markets</a>) swung in his favor.



On Halloween though, bitcoin dipped a few percentage points, trading between $69,000 and $70,000 for much of the day.&nbsp;



Historically, positive returns have been a bit more of a toss-up during the year’s 11th month, with four of the last six Novembers in the red, Coinglass data shows.&nbsp;



Still, November has the highest average monthly return for BTC — thanks to 449% growth during the month in 2013. The cryptocurrency also notched returns of 53% and 43% in November 2017 and November 2020, respectively.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdCvXRGZiFwtnENTBf4yVhkOHou6Oc4q5ArhnMxOKhqKBxlcwipg8tKVgELdbAmCl7jKxrP3AQHbSERdiVCKe-InA7J6cBhyXeKoJizlwHZ1m4p1CHhHU7MeahlKQd2-xLWGGzpTC7z6XOlyvi00wzJTWhu?key=rFHwHchOfUT_ArWDnp6lg6ld" alt=""/></figure>



The macroeconomic context globally is one of central banks turning toward monetary loosening, noted OTC Capital CEO Brian Dixon — a favorable backdrop for BTC.



“A lot of the upwards price action seems to have been front-run earlier this year because of the approval and launch of the bitcoin ETFs, and this was followed by months and months of sideways action,” Dixon told Blockworks. “Now, however, after a period of prolonged consolidation, I believe we may appear to be headed toward a major and sustained breakout.”



But a potential recession — should the Fed be unable to achieve a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gdp-estimates-suggest-soft-landing">soft landing</a> — could disrupt the upward trend bitcoin has generally maintained since early 2023, according to YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha.&nbsp;



“The psychological level of around $80,000 may act as a point where investors start to take profits, potentially introducing some selling pressure,” he added.



Demand for bitcoin ETFs was ample in October, with <a href="https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/">inflows</a> totaling $5.4 billion during the month. This was a substantial jump from September, during which nearly $1.3 billion worth of assets entered the fund segment.&nbsp;



Overall, October marked the second-best flow month for the category — falling shy of the nearly $6.1 billion seen in February.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Month</td><td>Net Flows (millions $)</td></tr><tr><td>January</td><td>+1,460</td></tr><tr><td>February</td><td>+6,063</td></tr><tr><td>March</td><td>+4,637</td></tr><tr><td>April</td><td>-345</td></tr><tr><td>May</td><td>+2,073</td></tr><tr><td>June</td><td>+667</td></tr><tr><td>July</td><td>+3,169</td></tr><tr><td>August</td><td>-92</td></tr><tr><td>September </td><td>+1,263</td></tr><tr><td>October</td><td>+5,415</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



You already know about some of the possible US <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-price-predictions-election">election implications</a> on the crypto market, and we’ll talk more about that on Monday. But maybe it’s best not to think about that all weekend.



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After ‘Uptober’ plays out, what could we see in November?

Michael McSweeney

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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This week saw a new —&nbsp;though perhaps unsurprising — entrant in the race to offer up a new SOL vehicle to would-be institutional investors.



Canary Capital Group’s Wednesday filing for a spot SOL ETF with the SEC <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2041869/000199937124014193/solana-s1_103024.htm">comes</a> a few months after VanEck kicked off the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-files-for-solana-etf">process</a> with a filing of its own.&nbsp;



The fresh filing is a cause for celebration, certainly —&nbsp;especially if you’re of the opinion/hope that next week’s election will usher in a far less, shall we say, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-gary-gensler-on-eth-status-commodity">Gensler-ish</a> take on US securities oversight. Sitting SEC commissioners on the Republican side are of the view that investors, not regulators, should judge the merits of such products, and in the event that Donald Trump prevails, Chair Gary Gensler may find himself <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">out of a job</a> sooner than later.



Barring a fundamental sea change, the SEC’s ongoing contention that SOL is a security <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-mango-markets-sol">may prove</a> a significant roadblock. Any attempt to read the spilled tea leaves is tricky in an election year, but under Gensler, SOL sort of seems to be a hill the agency’s court lawyers are willing to die on. At the same time, the fact that the SEC is trying to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-wrong-about-crypto-asset-securities">unwind its language</a> around so-called “crypto asset securities” suggests that things are far more fluid than ominous legal language might indicate.&nbsp;



This editor is of the opinion that the march of time is the best instructor here. Wind back the clock to 2014/2015 and the prospects for a bitcoin ETF looked downright dire, nothing more than a waste of Winklevoss cash. Now <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-cboe-nyse-options-btc-etfs">we’ve got options</a> on spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. Does that guarantee a solana ETF’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/future-crypto-etf-filings-in-limbo">success</a>? No, but nor does it spell a death sentence, neither.&nbsp;



Things are all just a little bit up in the air now, as they were — checking my calendar here —&nbsp;nearly a decade ago.



Earlier this year, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hester-peirce-advises-crypto-industry">the crypto-friendly</a> SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce acknowledged this reality, telling crypto outlet <a href="https://www.coinage.media/s3/sec-commissioner-peirce-weighs-in-on-solana-etf-applications">Coinage</a>: 



&#8220;This environment with crypto is so difficult, of course, because there are questions around what my colleagues and I are going to think is a security and not — there are all these kinds of questions. But again, we really should just take the existing precedent and apply it to whatever the facts and circumstances are.&#8221;



As with so much in crypto right now, next week’s election is likely to be the deciding factor here. Stay tuned, as they say.



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Once more into the SOL ETF breach

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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Even taking into account yesterday’s global market selloff, the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-price-gains">Uptober</a>” framing, in the end, did not disappoint.&nbsp;



For the month, bitcoin was up about 11% to close at the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">second-highest</a> monthly level ever. US bitcoin ETFs saw $2.28 billion in inflows this week (excluding today), capping off a month of roughly $5.63 billion entering the segment.



While it remains to be seen whether that capital is sticky or more of a temporary basis-driven trade, BTC bulls have nothing to complain about.



Heading into November and the US <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-industry-open-letter-trump-harris">election week</a>, short-term BTC options volatility has surged and inverted the term structure. Several commentators see it as echoing the trends in the run-up to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">launch</a> of US spot bitcoin ETFs at the start of the year.



BTC futures open interest accelerated in October, showing steady demand amid election positioning.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New testnets</h2>



Space and Time Labs launched the SXT Chain testnet at Chainlink SmartCon in Hong Kong. The move brings a zk-verifiable blockchain indexing platform for developers one step closer. SXT Chain, which uses the ZK Stack, enables decentralized, zk-proven data delivery to smart contracts and is expected to facilitate new possibilities, like onchain credit scoring.



Through what Space and Time calls “<a href="https://docs.spaceandtime.io/docs/proof-of-sql-overview">Proof of SQL</a>,” developers can query and verify data across chains, including Ethereum and ZKsync’s Elastic Chain ecosystem.



Also launching a testnet this week is =nil; Foundation, debuting its Ethereum L2 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-rollup-zksharding-nil-mainnet">powered by zkSharding</a>. Following a successful devnet debut, this release showcases protocol upgrades and a handful of dapps, such as Uniswap v2 demo DEX functionality in a sharded environment.



The zkSharding framework is one option for overcoming the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nexus-liquidity-fragmentation">fragmentation</a> currently plaguing Ethereum L2s. It combines appchain scalability with monolithic composability, according to new CEO Avi Zurlo and co-founder Konstantin Lomashuk. Backed by Polychain and Blockchain Capital, =nil; is planning further testnets in 2025.



Nomic has launched its Babylon bitcoin staking on Ethereum testnet. Nomic offers a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/liquid-staked-bitcoin-yield-option-btc-holders">decentralized solution</a> for bitcoin staking via Babylon, allowing users to avoid centralized custodians. Bedrock’s uniBTC, a liquid staking token (LST) with over 2,000 BTC staked, will be among the first to adopt the protocol.



Mainnet and further EVM chain rollouts are planned for the coming months, pending the increase of Babylong deposit caps.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A twist on the restaking airdrop?</h2>



Zircuit has <a href="https://x.com/ZircuitL2/status/1852041810714960054">launched</a> what it calls the “EIGEN fairdrop,” an airdrop of 2% of its total supply distributed equally among 190,000+ eligible EIGEN holders. The fairdrop, which is based on an Oct. 8 snapshot, will grant eligible participants who have at least 3 EIGEN tokens — excluding the EigenLayer team and investors — a share of the ZRC token distribution.



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Bitcoin bulls ride ‘Uptober’ wave, keep eye on November

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Hold your horses.



While some folks around crypto think we could see the bullish rally take off after we get the election results, Empire’s Jason Yanowitz isn’t so sure.&nbsp;



In <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/c556cabc-980a-11ef-a4a2-abb2c6578400">Friday’s Roundup</a>, he said that he doesn’t think we see the markets “rip” until potentially January or even February.&nbsp;



“There could be more uncertainty” in November and December, he added, pointing out that he thinks the election results could be close.



“Both sides are already prepping for an all-out war to contest the election,” Yanowitz said. Last election, it took the <a href="https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/calling-the-2020-presidential-race-state-by-state">Associated Press</a>, for example, until Saturday, Nov. 7 to declare a winner. If there’s uncertainty, then it puts the market certainty on the back burner, he pointed out.



And now you know.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Immutable has received a Wells notice from the SEC, the latest in their de facto policy of regulation by enforcement. We received this within hours of our first ever conversation, on a timeline clearly accelerated to land before an election. Sadly, stories like this are becoming…&mdash; Immutable (@Immutable) <a href="https://twitter.com/Immutable/status/1852093814112161932?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Exchanges, NFTs, and now…gaming.&nbsp;



Those are just some of the areas of crypto that’ve been targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission.&nbsp;



Immutable, last night, said it was “frustrated” to disclose the receipt of a Wells notice from the SEC.&nbsp;



Now I know I’ve said this before, but a Wells notice doesn’t mean that a lawsuit is imminent, but it serves as a warning that an investigation has been conducted.&nbsp;



Admittedly, the lawsuit odds for crypto companies are pretty high, but I will point out that we’re still waiting for the other shoe to drop against both Robinhood and Uniswap after their respective Wells notices arrived last spring.



Immutable believes that the notice is targeting both the listing and private sales of its token, IMX, back in 2021. However, the notice doesn’t specify what the SEC is looking at.&nbsp;



“Prior to the issuance of a Wells notice, there are often multiple months of interviews and conversations between company counsel and the SEC, so the SEC can fully understand the situation. Instead, in our very first interaction with the SEC, we were told a Wells notice would be issued to the company within the week. We then received it within hours,” Immutable said. It further said that there were “fewer than 20 words of material explanation” about the investigation.



Whether or not the SEC is really pulling the punches right before the election is hard to assert, but one thing’s for certain: the SEC isn’t ready to turn down the heat on the crypto sector and we could continue to see more Wells notices and settlements into a potential bull market run.



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Election uncertainty may put market certainty on the back burner

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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They say the metaverse is dead, but it’s not so! It’s just that some are deader than others.



Social media platforms often operate in their own Bizarro Worlds. Boomer-brand conspiracies are hot on Facebook, street interviews are huge on Instagram and TikTok’s brain is hardwired for viral earworms spread via super-basic dance choreography.



X and Truth Social had much less in common when Trump launched the latter in February 2022, Trump initially formed Trump Media &amp; Technology Group one month after he was banned from Facebook and Twitter over the Capitol attack on Jan. 6.



Trump was quickly unbanned from Twitter following Musk’s buyout and rebranding to X, but Truth Social enjoyed at least nine months of carving out its own reality.&nbsp;



Helping delineate the two were the cavalcade of culture warriors who’d been banned by the former Twitter administration. They now had a cozy place on Truth Social, where they could mosey on from Gab and Parler.



That was years ago and X is a “freer” place than it was before. Still, DJT isn’t doing too poorly these days. You might’ve already heard that Trump Media &amp; Technology Group stock (DJT) could now be valued higher than X.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe7z3s8DbyWPnmpzxOoxkoMAzyYIirKqpWKnXwjZCzfEas3UmfpMRdhkEhldY_etH-TxiOtHIsomEtAPETHbA9S3nIdu2ePitx5-v46P4WdOe6ocbWTRN96TCkY5K1EBEKITOfQBlqfcz1pFfD2afR-l0Y?key=Sy1Vkr5km8oTiyaLjtUz_taO" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">APE was launched after the stock, so it’s been moved ahead by three months to compensate</figcaption></figure>



That was indeed the case earlier this week, when DJT hit a new record high market cap of over $10 billion, having quadrupled its share price since bottoming out at the end of September.&nbsp;



Fidelity <a href="https://newsweek.com/donald-trumps-truth-social-now-worth-more-elon-musks-x-1976911">recently</a> valued X Holdings at $9.4 billion but DJT has since slipped to under $7.1 billion.



Here’s something you haven’t heard: Trump Media &amp; Technology Group stock and apecoin (APE) have experienced almost exactly the same market reaction.



The chart above plots APE, in blue, against Trump Media stock, in orange, which initially traded under DWAC in a SPAC-fueled IPO.



Notice that the two closely track each other — up until the first live demo of Yuga Labs’ BAYC metaverse, Otherside, in July 2022 (October on the chart), after which APE began to sink.



Trump Media meanwhile stock stabilized, before rocketing after Florida governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the Republican nominee race in January. From there, it’s been a rocky ride.



Now, all we need is for apecoin to find its own DeSantis moment, and we’ve got a shot at getting the (actual) metaverses back on track.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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What a metaverse coin and a Trump-linked stock have in common

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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One thing that is not spooky this Halloween is the latest PCE report, which showed prices increased as expected and annual inflation inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target.&nbsp;



So Powell probably isn’t having any nightmares tonight, or at least any inflation-related ones.&nbsp;



Prices increased by 0.2% month over month, according to the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2024">PCE index</a> for September. Annual inflation for the 12 months ended September came in at 2.1%.&nbsp;



It’s the lowest annual rate since February 2021. August’s annual headline figure came in at 2.3% after an upward revision Thursday, so things are moving in the right direction.&nbsp;



Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in September and the annual rate is 2.7% — just a tad higher than analysts had expected, but flat from the reading we got in August.&nbsp;



The print did little to move the needle on rate cut expectations for November, with fed funds futures markets calling for a 95% chance of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-interest-rate-cuts">25-basis point cut</a>, per CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a>. It’s a bit far out to speculate too much, but markets are less confident that central bankers will opt for another 25bps cut come December, pricing in a 72% likelihood. 



Remember, the latest FOMC projections show interest rates ending 2024 50bps lower than where they currently stand. But, as we’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">written about before</a>, investors have doubts the committee will follow through.



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September PCE figures shouldn’t scare markets 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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MicroStrategy revealed yesterday that it intends to…wait for it…<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-mstr-stock-btc-performance">buy more bitcoin</a>.&nbsp;



I’d bet you weren’t on the edge of your seat, because you know that’s what the largest <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-salesmen-michael-saylor-larry-fink">corporate holder</a> of bitcoin — now with 252,220 BTC — does. But this time, the strategy looks a little different given what is dubbed as the “21/21 plan.”&nbsp;



MicroStrategy plans to raise $21 billion from equity issuances through a new at-the-market facility, as well as another $21 billion by issuing fixed income securities.



The former facility is the largest of its kind in the history of US capital markets, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said in his latest research note.



Palmer is boosting his price target for the stock from $245 to an even $300. MSTR’s stock price was roughly $248 at 2 pm ET Thursday — up about 0.4% on the day.&nbsp;



Since launching its bitcoin acquisition strategy in August 2020, MicroStrategy has used $9.9 billion (from capital markets and excess cash flow) to buy BTC, Palmer notes. The plan now is for the company to raise $10 billion in 2025, $14 billion in 2026, and $18 billion in 2027.



This phase of its strategy is “even more audacious,” the analyst adds. And it’s not exactly surprising given how successful MSTR stock has performed since adopting BTC as a reserve asset (up about 1,700%, he notes).



On the year, MSTR’s share price gain is well ahead of BTC’s rise, at 257% to 59% as of mid-day Thursday.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



The company’s BTC yield — the percentage change of the ratio between MSTR’s bitcoin holdings and its fully diluted share count — is “a more valuable metric for assessing the company’s value” than comparing MSTR’s market capitalization to its net asset value, Palmer argued.&nbsp;



Company leaders said MicroStrategy’s year-to-date BTC yield is at 17.8%, below 2021’s 43.3% but higher than last year’s 7.3%.



With the 21/21 plan laid out, MicroStrategy executives raised the firm’s BTC yield annual target (for each of the next three years) from the 4-8% range to 6-10%.



We’ll be watching.



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MicroStrategy shares ‘audacious’ plan to buy more bitcoin

Felix Jauvin

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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A couple of years ago, the quarterly refunding announcements (QRA) from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) were dry and boring meetings that only dorks like myself paid attention to. The TBAC advises the Treasury on debt issuance strategy for the upcoming quarter.&nbsp;



Ever since rates came off zero and fiscal deficits exploded, however, market participants have started to pay close attention to how the government is funding itself. Supply and demand are drivers of US Treasury yields. Therefore, if more supply is coming onto the long end of the yield curve, that will have a tangible impact on market prices.&nbsp;



This week, we received the last QRA before the election. With the caveat that anything from January 2025 onwards assumes a continuation of the same administration, let’s dig into what we learned from the report!



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The quantity of debt to be issued</h2>



The first half of the QRA came on Monday when we received an update on the amount of debt the Treasury plans to issue for the upcoming quarter.



The Treasury anticipates the following:&nbsp;



For October – December 2024:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Targeting a Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdown from the current $886 billion to $700 billion.</li>



<li>During this time, Treasury plans to issue $546 billion in net issuance.</li>
</ul>



For January – March 2025:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Targeting a TGA balance of $850 billion, up from the previous quarter that anticipates $700 billion.</li>



<li>Net borrowing of $823 billion. </li>
</ul>



The numbers reflect a significant increase in debt issuance planned for the next couple of quarters — an increase of $277 billion. That said, the decrease in the TGA balance explains $150 billion of that marginal requirement.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The composition of debt to be issued</h2>



The real juice of the QRA comes from getting a pulse on what the maturity profile of the debt issuance will be (essentially, how much of each maturity will make up the total borrowing amounts).



We can see the composition of debt for the next two quarters below:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd8joSk3ubk3dsaOzf5K0REVsC6b5qQW5wD3bOTCW4-TTAHWWaSHrH0WISTzYf7zhcJo9GMxnYsEAevzGQ_i7LEcYnC-ZyryVcXGC0VkPb7sIoJh-3utPtgoLPT2AIBK-Qmj8Goo6YBre84WZKloJO_meDK?key=Nc1g8IyQIc_HvGRuD4Hyp4ca" alt=""/></figure>



A few key insights here:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has provided guidance that there are no plans for any change in long-duration issuance composition in the coming quarters. Effectively, the dollar amount of issuance for anything longer than one-year of duration is set to remain constant. </li>



<li>This means if borrowing needs increase, it is up to issuance of less than a year (T-bills) to take up the mantle of issuance. </li>



<li>Because of the incoming TGA drawdown to $700 billion, then reversal to $850 billion, a substantial increase in bill issuance will be required to fund the Treasury.</li>
</ul>



When we look at the proportion of total net issuance in recent quarters that is T-bills, we get the following:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdDmnAuHwEd5cs3ehB41MzhKFcDOxzEw1QsyAZSm8p9GhSAxBF7U1SociLGndlfDVGREhSUb4CwVSygje6Niur8uizYzg-w3swp1lnJLUNdOXOsDAsFOUeboAP4MN7xyM4GTW4xtu1YrTBwBAyYcLIRo3dX?key=Nc1g8IyQIc_HvGRuD4Hyp4ca" alt=""/></figure>



Of note, the Treasury is forecasting an increase of proportion from 13% to 45%. This is notable, as historically the Treasury targets a long-term average of 15% to 20% of total debt being T-bills. Admittedly, this 45% weighting is likely an outlier that will be reversed in Q2 2025 when tax receipts come in and dampen the requirement for bills to take up the issuance mantle.



That said, with total Treasury debt outstanding already above the upper limit of their target range at 22%, one must wonder how long this game of avoiding surprising markets with duration can last:



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeMeLBGPAswzEdANZ-V5wQvdEMtG0AXysU_STMUfOSKWEBGAIfTGvsBuNWpGohMDkRS-KpEDS-sa9M_7cnDH_KR4U_2oCbVcXwZ4wTize3pWxOe1gUodZDDOKe6M0j-lG6jGGzjhKvTL9ufQOccScTT4fw_?key=Nc1g8IyQIc_HvGRuD4Hyp4ca" alt=""/></figure>



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Breaking down the recent TBAC borrowing recommendations

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They say you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover.



But you should totally judge a chain by its memes. And Solana memecoins are collectively at an all-time high.



There are 57 memecoins with at least a $75 million market cap on <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/solana-meme-coins">CoinGecko</a>. Sixteen of those are native to Solana, 18 are on Ethereum, and the remaining 40% are scattered across chains like Base, Bitcoin, Avalanche and Binance Chain.



It turns out that this particular selection of Solana memecoins have never been valued higher: $9.84 billion on Wednesday and slightly below that today.



Ethereum memes are otherwise sitting at about $19 billion, although shiba inu makes up nearly 60% of the total.&nbsp;



What’s on CoinGecko probably doesn’t encompass the full scope of memecoinery, as it doesn’t reflect everything on Pump.fun. But those coins would probably only make a marginal difference in the end.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdr5CRN9YMbZCszYFPKy3z_HMmyrInG0mWktLX1N8fqnobr0Mff3WN4xDtl6bIP6ywmIe_e7bOxwckRaZqu3BqI5iyIKklIpAv_qaYijH7AsO2ns7UJfwbrVZ0v8Z2u0zj8ekzMu8YZvG1SAZ720Co2gw?key=z0B_pWEUVrpQPMzlHwAuE4Kw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Solana’s memecoin sector is in blue, Ethereum’s in purple, while Base’s and Bitcoin’s are orange and red</figcaption></figure>



Still, it’s telling that Solana memecoins are still gaining ground while Ethereum’s are stagnating at 35% below where they were when bitcoin peaked in March.



And if that doesn’t satisfy your Ethereum bloodlust, consider yourself lucky you’re not a Bitcoin or Base memecoin maxi.



Base still only has two primary memecoins — DEGEN and BRETT — and together they’re stuck at about a $1 billion market cap.



Bitcoin otherwise has three Runes with market caps over $75 million. For a brief moment in May, Bitcoin’s memecoins were more valuable than Base’s, but today the two ecosystems are practically neck-and-neck.



In any case, the fixation surrounding a potential Ethereum flip by Solana has us all watching DEX volumes and fee spend, to see the signs ahead of time.



I’d watch for a flippening of memecoin markets instead.



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A memecoin market flippening could be underway

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Alliance DAO continues to shape the crypto landscape as an influential accelerator, supporting Web3 innovators with high-growth potential.&nbsp;



With thousands of applications each year, Alliance leverages its extensive dataset to track trends and offer insights into evolving crypto sectors. This was evident in Alliance’s latest Demo Day yesterday, where a cadre of crypto prospects showcased their latest and greatest ideas to provide a snapshot of the future of crypto development.



The startup pitches jived well with Alliance’s <a href="https://alliance.xyz/essays/crypto-startup-trends-24">recent report</a> on industry trends. The report highlights Ethereum’s ongoing dominance as a preferred blockchain for building dapps, where approximately 62% of startups in Alliance’s program are rooted. Yet, interest in alternatives, particularly Solana, is <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-mobile-app-season">growing</a>.



Optimistic rollups like Optimism, Arbitrum and Base are seeing rapid adoption relative to zk rollups. Base has captured significant developer interest since its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/base-dapp-layer-2">launch</a> in 2023, and now comprises a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/base-dex-volume-decentralization">major portion</a> of L2 activity.



Solana has rebounded strongly in the two years following the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-meltdown-timeline">FTX collapse</a>, accounting for 18% of recent Alliance applications. Meanwhile, Polygon, once a favored EVM scaling solution, has seen waning interest as it <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polygon-validum-zk-tech-future">pursues a switch</a> to a zk validium.



Projects like Amihan game Farm Frens and Offramp are deploying as Telegram apps while tapping into other networks in the background. Farm Frens relies on NFTs minted on Solana, while Offramp partners with wallet-as-a-service and account abstraction solutions from Dynamic and Zerodev to enable embedded, EVM-based non-custodial wallets. This helps Offramp deliver user-friendly blockchain interactions within Telegram while abstracting away complex technical details from its users.



Product verticals in the crypto space are undergoing a shift, with increased attention on infrastructure, payments and DeFi applications, Alliance found.



Infrastructure projects have steadily gained traction, partially due to their high valuations and investor appeal. DataHive, a distributed data collective powered by AI, exemplifies this interest by addressing the need for data democratization and privacy in a crypto-native framework. Starpower, a DePIN for sustainable energy, combines DeFi with real-world assets to support distributed energy resources.



In contrast, interest in DAOs and NFTs has receded as founders increasingly prioritize utility-based applications that cater to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-depin-public-goods">specific user needs</a> over community-led governance structures.



Alliance partner Qiao Wang has also been vocal about the role of speculation in the crypto space, framing it as a pivotal driver for innovation and early-stage project growth. Wang argues that unlike traditional venture capital where risk aversion can stifle bold ideas, the speculative culture within crypto enables projects to secure resources and iterate rapidly.



This approach aligns with Alliance’s selection of startups. It backs protocols including the likes of Whalefare, which merges speculative gameplay with the allure of applications like Candy Crush. The goal is to demonstrate the appeal of gaming as an accessible entry point for crypto adoption.&nbsp;



The theme carries over to Demo Day participants Force Prime and Kiss or Rug. Force Prime, a prediction market built for strategy games, exemplifies how startups are creating gamified experiences that also cater to high-risk, high-reward speculation. Similarly, but with a “SocialFi” bent, Kiss or Rug is trying a spin on the dating app by applying game theory to its matching system.



Geographically, the trends report notes a significant drop in applications from the US and Canada, whose combined share fell from 45% in late 2021 to 29% in 2024.&nbsp;



This decline can be attributed to growing regulatory challenges in North America, leading founders to either relocate or build in more crypto-friendly regions. Startups like RPS, a Twitch-inspired platform for monetized competitive games, embody this shift, tapping into Asia’s active market for gaming and social platforms. Asia and Africa, meanwhile, are witnessing increased adoption, driven by real-world applications <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-report-market-capitalization">like stablecoins</a>.



The report emphasizes that about 72% of startups within Alliance’s accelerator operate fully remotely, a setup that aligns with crypto’s inherently global and decentralized ethos.&nbsp;



However, Alliance still maintains a preference for in-person teams when possible, as face-to-face interactions are believed to foster stronger team cohesion and accountability.



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Alliance DAO’s Demo Day showcases industry trends

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Air traffic control is often pegged as the most stressful job in the world.&nbsp;



Managing private key security at Coinbase might just take the cake.&nbsp;



Coinbase is big. Influential. On the front lines of the war for hearts, minds and regulatory clarity.



There’s no greater way to prove Coinbase’s standing in the crypto space than by just how much of it is given to it for safekeeping.



We know now that Coinbase users held $272.7 billion in crypto at the end of September, plus an additional $4 billion in cash.&nbsp;



That’s nearly $3.5 billion more crypto than at the end of June — probably in part boosted by rising asset prices — and $200 million less cash than the prior period.



Then, there’s all the crypto tied up in Grayscale’s suite of ETPs and ETFs: $22.62 billion at Q3’s close, per Arkham Intelligence data. Grayscale went all-in on Coinbase Custody <a href="https://www.coinbase.com/en-nl/blog/welcoming-grayscale-the-worlds-largest-crypto-fund-to-coinbase">back</a> in 2019.&nbsp;



Another $31.7 billion is custodied on behalf of other ETF issuers like BlackRock, Bitwise and Ark/21Shares.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXddT-3TZ9R2tMHxBpvCw5HhHqQG57Jl9fg0dTuHoGmO3F37vEn451gHBHeqtwabturvBnEOgirFSCMngAHv6_weLYbKLAqJgVdeuM4PAd4HGCK_qzMAUrdR2HsuhQjc1DJFPB3F2U9xhZe7I53UjdB3mqVI?key=jN09XnEmKyKNO6yghsvBoIXQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A nickel of every dollar of crypto value on the planet is kept with Coinbase</figcaption></figure>



Coinbase’s final total for Q3: $331 billion, the equivalent of 15% of the total crypto market cap at the time.



And if you want to go even deeper: Chainalysis <a href="https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/04/24/bitcoin-wallets-waking-up-lost-coins-satoshi/">recently</a> estimated that about 1.8 million BTC could be lost forever — or 9.1% of the circulating supply.&nbsp;



Scrub that from crypto’s market cap, along with the 1.1 million lost Satoshi coins, and Coinbase would technically be sitting on closer to 17% of crypto’s remaining paper value.



No doubt, Coinbase recognizes the significance of it all. Still, the way things are going, Coinbase could go down as one of the most aptly named companies in fintech history:&nbsp;



A base for literally all the coins.



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Coinbase safeguards more of crypto than you might think

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Dominic Rizzo, who manages T. Rowe Price’s new technology-focused ETF, is “a big believer” in crypto, DeFi and stablecoins.&nbsp;



“Over the long run, I think there are going to be plenty of applications that utilize the technologies,” he said. “Unfortunately, right now — as a public market equity investor — there are actually not a lot of ways to get exposure to those trends (that fit my investment frameworks), outside of Coinbase.”



0.89% of the fund’s total holdings are in COIN, as of Tuesday. A drop in the bucket when compared to the roughly 30% combined positions in Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft, sure — but still a component.&nbsp;&nbsp;



T. Rowe Price’s technology ETF invests in companies across the hardware, software, internet and payments segments. Within those categories, Rizzo said Coinbase fits his four-part checklist of being a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-q3-earnings-analysis">linchpin technology</a>”; innovating in a secular growth market; having improving fundamentals; and sporting a reasonable valuation.



Coinbase is “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/under-the-hood-coinbase-earnings-q1-2024">a unique animal,</a>” Rizzo added. Outside of the trading business, he noted its custodian status to most of the US crypto ETFs, as well as its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbases-circle-investment-reflects-the-shoring-up-of-major-revenue-stream">partnership</a> with USDC issuer Circle and its layer-2, Base.



COIN was up 40% year to date, as of Tuesday’s close.&nbsp;



“It comes to this thesis on Coinbase being kind of the ultimate linchpin for the on- and off-ramp of crypto into TradFi and vice versa,” Rizzo explained.&nbsp;



Other crypto-related stocks (MicroStrategy or bitcoin miners, for example) don’t fit that “linchpin” definition, he said — meaning they’re mission-critical to the success of their customers or make users’ lives dramatically better.



Rizzo would like more crypto equity opportunities, and believes more will come.



“We’re trying to make sure we’re on top of it,” he said, “because I think this is such a big trend.”&nbsp;



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T. Rowe Price PM a ‘big believer’ in crypto

Molly Jane Zuckerman

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="256" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93957" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/image-3.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



I’ve already written about the way Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-murder-mystery-books">oozing their way into popular culture</a> for years now, mainly covering Netflix’s quippy one-off jokes about dating crypto bros, or more nefarious criminal plot points involving money laundering.



But for the first time (as far as I can tell, it’s really the first time, unlike many a crypto press release announcing a new kind of tech), a play entirely about Bitcoin was put on in New York. “Off Broadway,” or even Off-Off Broadway, if I need to get technical, written by CoinDesk crypto journalist and editor Ben Schiller.



I arrived at the theater a little bit early and a little bit tipsy, immediately running into a college acquaintance who recently had his own play make it to Broadway. “Wow,” I said to him, impressed, “you’re really interested in this satirical Bitcoin show?” “Oh, no, what is that?” He looked confused. “I’m going to a workshop next door.”



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/onecoins-crypto-queen-should-be-old-news">OneCoin’s Crypto Queen should be old news</a>



The play (or musical, since there is one number called — I kid you not — “Bitcoin Bad Boy”) is chock-full of Bitcoiner humor and inside baseball that only the well-initiated will understand. Even the pre-recorded voices that move the plot along or provide background noise throughout the show are mainly voiced by crypto journalists.



And the audience, on what appeared to be a sold-out opening night — full of the same people that I waited in line for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sbf-trial">Sam Bankman-Fried trial</a> with every day last fall — were lapping up even the cringiest Bitcoin humor. One actor compared Satoshi to both MLK Jr. and Christ, which got a big laugh.&nbsp;



The play itself was loosely based on both the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-blew-it-final-defense-trial">crypto genius to jailbird stories</a> of Charlie Shrem and Sam Bankman-Fried. The SBF connection was looser (although the main character’s overbearing mother is an effective altruist named Barbara).&nbsp;



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sam-bankman-fried-charitable-facade">‘Cryptomania’ reveals the true cost of SBF’s charitable facade</a>



The Charlie Shrem connection was stronger to the extent that the main character is actually named Charlie Schwagg. And the real Charlie Shrem was there, having long since served jail time for his connection to the Bitcoin Foundation and the Silk Road. In fact, he was so present that I was booted out of the front row to give him and his wife the best seats in the house.



Play/musical Charlie’s crypto crimes are that of an open-source coder whose code is used to do bad things (in this case, kill people). His jail term starts Monday, and he’s fully resigned himself to serving out his sentence in full, taking the time to write his crypto manifesto.&nbsp;



His mom (effective altruist Barbara) wants to use their privilege to get Charlie out of the US, stat. Her hysteria culminates on Charlie’s last night of freedom at his nightclub, Pseudonymous, when she tries to drug him and shove him on a private plane to Africa.



Charlie’s girlfriend, the hippie Sally, doesn’t seem to care if he goes to jail or not, just as long as he gives her money to open a yoga center for humans and dogs. But in one of the final turns of events, Sally has to make peace with the fact that her human and dog yoga center will actually be a Bitcoin and spirituality studio — a plot twist which gets a sole, very loud, clap. At one point, Ben Schiller himself gets on stage to join a Kundalini yoga ritual at Pseudonymous. And without giving away the ending, Charlie does get a chance to write his manifesto, but probably not in the way that he thought.&nbsp;



Schiller’s play is commentary on crypto, effective altruism, wealth, finance, free speech and yoga. There were lines like: Decentralize your wallet, decentralize your soul. And: Well, you’re my satoshi/And you’re my goddess. And don’t get me started on the lyrics to “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKW1cjrXXss">Bitcoin Bad Boy.</a>” It’s so satirical at times to be nonsensical —&nbsp;there’s no chance in hell that a real life Bitcoin spirituality dog yoga center would be a real thing, let alone a thing needing $200 million (I dare you to prove me wrong, crypto builders!).



But what sticks in my mind the most was the camaraderie at the Bitcoin play. Just as waiting in line on freezing fall NYC mornings brought a group of crypto journalists <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sbf-trial-crypto-journalism-polycule">together in a faux-polycule way</a>, it was genuinely heartwarming to see the crypto journos and builders all come together in one tiny theater on the lower East Side to support cryptocurrency’s first theatrical debut. There was networking, there was drinking, there was someone checking the price charts in the row in front of me.&nbsp;



What more could you expect at a Bitcoin play?



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Bitcoin belongs on Broadway?

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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You know how Empire pulls back the curtain to give you that look inside the crypto industry?&nbsp;



Well, the fun part about Wall Street’s earnings season is that it does the work for us. For the public crypto companies, I mean.



We’re in the thick of it, and last night had a ton of earnings-related news. There are two things I want to focus on this morning.&nbsp;



The overall tone of the earnings call after the results were announced was positive with Coinbase executives including Brian Armstrong updating analysts on how the business is faring this cycle.&nbsp;



Of course, Armstrong spent a chunk of the non-Q&amp;A portion discussing the company’s political efforts. Not a big surprise given that the election is less than a week away.&nbsp;



He also affirmed something we’ve talked about numerous times here: That regulatory clarity on the institutional side will be a “massive source of inflow of capital.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfVuDNq-RIiUXOlyOTsWEYheego6UyxbabsQo_ulcx2hyrL_ESY0-bYRATDYjDKUIUqdOSN27pwmC52KuLFxMKmxuwLIGmKQq20MI56KA24ciNdQyLgjIwIbbkh8-Zu3jNigcjsTvCL8mKzpf59oto9-gs?key=jN09XnEmKyKNO6yghsvBoIXQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Coinbase</figcaption></figure>



Overall, the $1.2 billion revenue reported by the exchange was impressive albeit just shy of analyst expectations for $1.25 billion. To put it in perspective, that figure is nearly double the amount reported in the same quarter last year ($674 million).&nbsp;



The real figure to watch going into the next (and final) quarter of 2024 is the total trading volume, which was down 18% QoQ to $185 billion. That metric will stand out if we start seeing more pickup in the overall spot market.&nbsp;



That second thing I teased? An interesting tidbit in the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001713445/000171344524000102/rddt-20240930.htm">SEC filing</a> from Reddit yesterday. The doc itself is pretty run-of-the-mill, but buried within it, the newly-public social media company said that it sold off the “majority” of its crypto portfolio, which had primarily been made up of bitcoin and ether.&nbsp;



All in all, it looks like Reddit sold crypto for roughly $6.8 million. How much of that was divided up between bitcoin and ether is unclear, unfortunately. In the filing, crypto is just grouped into intangible asset sales.



We know, from previous disclosures, that Reddit had exposure to crypto. Although, in an S-1 filing ahead of its public debut, the firm had previously invested its “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/reddit-invests-btc-eth">excess cash reserves</a>” in bitcoin and ether. We also know that the company held a bit of MATIC, but it was immaterial.&nbsp;



So there you have it: COIN’s readthrough shows the potential setup for a very interesting fourth quarter, while Reddit’s backing away from holding crypto.&nbsp;



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

The crypto nugget in Reddit’s SEC filing

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The artificial intelligence craze is alive and well — at least, if Alphabet earnings and investments in Elon Musk’s new venture are any indication.&nbsp;



Alphabet (GOOG and GOOGL) stock surged almost 7% in the first hour of trading Wednesday on better-than-expected <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/major-earnings-week-stocks">earnings</a> from Google’s parent company Tuesday evening.&nbsp;



Alphabet said Tuesday its AI investments are “paying off,” as demonstrated by an increase in its Cloud and Search businesses, which jumped 35% and 12%, respectively, during Q3 2023.&nbsp;



“This business has real momentum, and the overall opportunity is increasing as customers embrace gen. AI,&#8221; Google CEO Sundar Pichai said Tuesday of the company’s Cloud product.&nbsp;



The earnings report comes as fundraising in the AI space continues to explode.&nbsp;



<a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/elon-musks-xai-in-talks-to-raise-funding-valuing-it-at-40-billion-af808b9e">Reports</a> swirled yesterday that Elon Musk is in the midst of a funding round for xAI that would value the startup at around $40 billion. The news comes just months after the company closed a $6 billion round over the spring, which valued xAI at $24 billion.&nbsp;



OpenAI earlier this month secured a $6.6 billion round, putting the company at a $157 billion valuation.&nbsp;



On tap after the close today we have earnings reports from two more of the Mag 7: Meta and Microsoft.&nbsp;



Analysts expect Meta to post an 18% increase in year-over-year revenue, largely driven by the company’s growing use of AI-driven advertising strategies.&nbsp;



Microsoft’s third quarter report comes just after the company announced its GitHub product will bake in AI models from Anthropic and Google into its coding assistant.&nbsp;



Should be an exciting day in after-hours trading. We’ll be back tomorrow unpacking all the details.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

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