Litecoin is a fork of Bitcoin's codebase with four times faster block times and a four times larger supply. The project considers itself complementary to Bitcoin as a silver to Bitcoin's gold. It is often used as a pseduo-testnet for Bitcoin, adopting new protocol changes before they are deployed on Bitcoin.

Litecoin

Casey Wagner

Republican challenger Bernie Moreno defeated sitting US Senator Sherrod Brown Tuesday, according to Politico. Moreno was leading Brown 50.6% to 46% as of 11:30 pm ET, when 91% of votes had been reported.  



Moreno had not yet made a public statement and Brown had not conceded as of time of publication. Both teams did not immediately respond to Blockworks’ request for comment.&nbsp;



Brown, the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has largely been seen by the crypto industry as an adversary. He voted against the resolution that sought to overturn the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s SAB 121 accounting guidance, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">passed both chambers</a> with bipartisan support before ultimately being vetoed by President Biden.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-harris-team-crypto">Team Harris members show mixed track record when it comes to crypto</a>



Senator Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., has <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/09/lummis-crypto-will-erupt-as-big-issue-in-senate-races-including-banking-chair-browns/">complained</a> that Brown has not been interested in getting crypto bills to the Committee for markup and votes, including <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">the bipartisan effort</a> Lummis has with Sen. Kristin Gillibrand, R-N.Y. Gillibrand was also up for re-election Tuesday, she defeated Republican Mike Sapraicone, earning 58% of the vote at time of publication.&nbsp;



Moreno, a car salesman, made crypto a central part of his messaging <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-race-sherrod-brown-bernie-moreno">on the campaign trail</a>, vowing to block a CBDC and fight against those looking to “destroy crypto.” 



Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake-associated crypto super PAC, has spent more than $34 million supporting Moreno through the end of October, federal <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00836221/?tab=spending">filings</a> show.



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Republican candidate Bernie Moreno defeats incumbent Sherrod Brown for US Senate seat 

Sitting US Senator Elizabeth Warren defeated Republican nominee John Deaton Tuesday night, according to the Associated Press. Warren had 81.6% of the vote as of 8:11 pm ET.&nbsp;



Deaton at 9 pm ET addressed the public via a livestream on X. He said he had spoken to Warren and congratulated her.&nbsp;



“I’m disappointed with the results,” Deaton said. “I&#8217;m a competitive guy.”



“I&#8217;m proud of my campaign and how it was run for this entire time; no lies, no name calling, just trying to focus on policy,” he added. “Although it was fun to tell the truth, look her in the face and say, ‘we know all of you suck in Congress.’”



Cryptocurrency regulation became a hot topic in the race for the Massachusetts seat. During a debate last month, Warren, a long-time adversary of pro-crypto proposals in Congress, alleged that Deaton is only interested in protecting “his crypto buddies.”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/elizabeth-warren-john-deaton-congressional-debate">Crypto gets mention on national stage during Congressional debate&nbsp;</a>



Deaton countered Warren’s characterization of the crypto industry, arguing that bitcoin and digital assets can help elevate marginalized communities. He pointed to his mother, who he said struggled to maintain minimum balances required by banks and often faced additional fees that would be avoided through blockchain transactions.&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/elizabeth-warren">Warren</a> eventually during the debate said she’s “fine” if people want to invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as long as safety is the top priority. The comment comes months after Warren wrote that the US Securities and Exchange Commission was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-wrong-bitcoin-etf-elizabeth-warren">“wrong on the law”</a> when they approved spot bitcoin ETFs at the beginning <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">of this year</a>.&nbsp;



Deaton amassed $2.1 million in campaign <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S4MA00358/?tab=raising">contributions</a> as of the middle of October, about half of which was a personal loan from Deaton himself. Other donors include Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, and current and former Ripple CEOs Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, each of whom donated the maximum amount allowed for&nbsp; individual contributors.&nbsp;



“Contrary to what Senator Warren said, the average donation for my campaign was $105 by regular people, hard working people,” Deaton said Tuesday night. 



The Warren campaign did not immediately respond to Blockworks’ request for comment.



Updated Nov. 5, 2024 at 9:12 pm ET: Added statement from Deaton. 



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Elizabeth Warren defeats crypto-backed challenger John Deaton in Massachusetts Senate race 

Ben Strack

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Regardless of the election outcome and its impact on crypto prices, some industry watchers have repeatedly noted the long-term tailwinds for BTC.



Among them are ongoing government deficit spending, Fed monetary policy and increased institutional adoption. A large demographic related to the latter is pensions and endowments, which brings us to some of the latest news.&nbsp;



You may have seen last month that Emory University <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1377635/000137763524000025/xslForm13F_X02/usethisfile13F.xml">disclosed</a> owning $15 million of the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust and 4,000-plus shares of Coinbase. Then yesterday, a 13F <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/762152/000076215224000013/xslForm13F_X02/InformationTable_09_30_24.xml">filing</a> detailed the State of Michigan Retirement System’s exposure to crypto.&nbsp;



Wisconsin’s investment board earlier this year <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/wisconsin-discloses-blackrock-ibit-shares">revealed</a> bitcoin ETF holdings amounting to roughly $100 million. So, more surprising than the Michigan fund’s $7 million of exposure to the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (as of Sept. 30) was its ownership of roughly $11 million worth of Grayscale ether ETFs.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Not only did Michigan&#39;s pension buy Ether ETFs but they bought more then they did of bitcoin ETFs, $10m vs $7m, this despite btc being up a ton and ether in the gutter. Pretty big win for ether which could use one. <a href="https://t.co/0E6O6pKK8S">https://t.co/0E6O6pKK8S</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1853472024833695805?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 4, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Also on Monday, consultant firm Cartwright revealed that an unnamed UK pension scheme made a 3% allocation to bitcoin, “reflecting the scheme’s relatively long investment time horizon.” The decision came “after a rigorous training and due diligence process,” it noted.



Samara Cohen, BlackRock&#8217;s CIO of ETF and index investments, said at <a href="https://blockworks.co/recordings?session=195300">Blockworks’ Permissionless conference</a> last month that there remains “a fair amount of plumbing” needed to unlock the ability for pensions and endowments to gain BTC exposure.&nbsp;



“It could be…what is the financial position of the fund [and] does it make sense to have a bitcoin allocation?” she explained. “And if the answer is yes, does a state law permit the fund to buy bitcoin ETPs? Do their investment guidelines? Does their board?” Bitcoin-focused platform Onramp <a href="https://x.com/OnrampBitcoin/status/1821232310978523387">noted</a> that Cartwright chose them as the asset manager and custodian to provide their clients with BTC access. Onramp CEO Michael Tanguma told me he expects other pensions to follow suit, noting that he believes bitcoin will ultimately be a core asset in all portfolios.&nbsp;



He added: “The banks stepping in to custody bitcoin, as well as bitcoin&#8217;s price inevitably hitting the six-figure mark in 2025, will dictate how fast the rest of the institutions follow.”



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Pensions’ move to BTC is slow, steady 

You already know it’s Election Day, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/election-eve-harris-trump-crypto-impact">we’ve detailed</a> the events leading up to today and what the results could spur in crypto land.&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s price surged above $70,000 Tuesday morning, before dropping below that threshold. BTC stood at roughly $70,170 just after 2 pm ET — up 3.5% from 24 hours prior.



Bitfinex analysts said in an email that BTC, historically, has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-election-market-moment">responded positively</a> to periods of political change, especially when fiscal and monetary policies are uncertain. “The demand for safe-haven assets amidst rising US debt and deficits could drive bitcoin’s appeal as election outcomes unfold,” they wrote.



BitOoda analysts noted in a Tuesday report that implied volatility remains elevated. That is likely to persist throughout the week due to the uncertainty around the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/elections">election</a> and the Fed’s Thursday meeting, they explained.



“The options market is signaling potential price movements of around 8% following the election, compared to the typical 2% daily fluctuation,” the BitOoda analysts added.&nbsp;



CoinFund managing partner Seth Ginns told Blockworks he would be watching the $75,000 level. “If we break decisively above it, we’d expect a quick and large follow-through,” he noted.&nbsp;



Following <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">bitcoin’s rise</a> above $73,000 last week (and subsequent decline), Ledn CIO John Glover predicted another test of the $74,000 level before the election results come in. A <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-republican-sweep-markets">Republican win</a> could bring a “quick jump” to around $82,000, he added, followed by a period of “sideways-to-lower trading” in the $68,000 to $72,000 range.&nbsp;



“A break and close below $63,000…could open up the potential for a correction down to $55,000 to 62,000, but that is not my preferred count,” Glover said.&nbsp;



Beyond price, Ginns’ colleague, CoinFund president Chris Perkins, said crypto voters (estimated to be <a href="https://x.com/HarrisXdata/status/1852520633906975024">18% of the electorate</a>) have already shaped party platforms and will influence a number of election outcomes.



“As a result, we expect the next Congress to be a ‘Crypto Congress,’&#8221; he said. “This will result in a more favorable regulatory and policy climate for the asset class which will be favorable for greater adoption.&#8221;



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BTC sees early Election Day boost above $70K

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Happy Election Day to our US readers! 



Yesterday we wrote about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-race-sherrod-brown-bernie-moreno">one close race in the Senate</a> that has caught the attention of big crypto donors. Here are some other Senate races we will be watching tonight:&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Utah Senate Seat: Caroline Gleich (D) v. Rep. John Curtis (R)</h2>



In the race to replace outgoing senator Mitt Romney, current US Rep. Curtis is polling ahead of Democrat Gleich by <a href="https://www.deseret.com/politics/2024/10/25/utah-senate-race-poll-john-curtis/">35%</a> — a lead largely attributed to the crypto industry.&nbsp;



The Defend American Jobs PAC (part of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-crypto-super-pac-elections">Fairshake</a> Super PAC trio) donated $1.9 million to Curtis’s campaign as of mid-October, making up almost 35% of the representative’s total contributions.&nbsp;



Curtis co-sponsored two crypto-related bills in the House this session: the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-act-fit21-with-bipartisan-support">FIT21 Act</a> and the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-cbdc-anti-surveillance-act">CBDC Anti-Surveillance</a> State Act. He also voted in favor of the bill that sought to discredit the SEC’s SAB 121 guidance, which was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-fails-to-override-anti-sab121-veto">ultimately vetoed</a> by President Biden.&nbsp;



“[It] is so important to get government involved, because if they don’t understand what you’re doing, they’ll make really bad decisions,” Curtis said last month at Blockworks’ <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/permissionless">Permissionless</a> conference in Salt Lake City. “The worst part of regulation is its unpredictability.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Michigan Senate Seat: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) v. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R)</h2>



This race will be interesting for two reasons. First, it’s going to be very close, according to the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/michigan/">latest polls</a>, which have Slotkin leading Rogers 49% to 48%. Second, it’s one of very few races this year where both candidates appear relatively supportive of crypto.&nbsp;



Slotkin has an <a href="https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/elissa---slotkin">A rating</a> from Stand With Crypto, and she voted in favor of both FIT21 and the bill to overturn SAB 121. The Protect Progress PAC (the Democratic pro-crypto group associated with Fairshake) has spent more than $10 million supporting Slotkin since the end of October, FEC filings show.&nbsp;



While Rogers also headed into Election Day with a Stand With Crypto <a href="https://www.standwithcrypto.org/politicians/person/mike--rogers">A rating</a>, the data to support this ranking is a bit less robust. Rogers, a US representative from 2001 to 2015, doesn’t have a crypto voting record, but has leaned into pro-crypto messaging throughout his campaign.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Arizona Senate Seat: Ruben Gallego (D) v. Kari Lake (R)</h2>



In another race shaping up to be neck and neck, Lake and Gallego also both have A ratings from Stand With Crypto.&nbsp;



Lake has publicly supported Donald Trump’s statements on bitcoin as a “last line of defense” against foreign adversaries and has been accepting bitcoin donations throughout her campaign.&nbsp;



Gallego, like Slotkin, also voted in favor of the SAB 121 resolution and FIT21. He has backing from Protect Progress to the tune of $10 million. 



Keep your eye on <a href="http://blockworks.co">Blockworks.co</a> tonight for the latest updates on more crypto-related races. 



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The US Senate races the crypto industry will be watching tonight 

Macauley Peterson

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The latest turn from Term Finance is turning heads: Its <a href="https://app.term.finance/earn">Blue Sheets Simple-Earn</a> platform now opens institutional-grade fixed-rate lending to the DeFi crowd. For those unfamiliar, Term Finance initially catered to high rollers, running efficient blind auctions onchain to match big-money borrowers and lenders.



Now, the platform — with backing from Coinbase, Electric Capital and Maelstrom — invites anyone with some ether or USDC to earn predictable yields, sans auction hassles and minimum balances.



Co-founder Billy Welch notes that although the Earn platform is only available on Ethereum and Avalanche C-chain for now, there are plans to scale to Ethereum L2s and other EVM networks, as well as to add more assets.



“Integrating Pendle assets is coming very soon — likely this week — as lenders have become more comfortable lending against these assets,” Welch told Blockworks. “We are always interested in more exotic collateral types based on demand, but risk management and lenders&#8217; willingness to lend against assets is a large consideration.”



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Term Finance eyes fixed-rate lending market

Elena Giralt

I am a single-issue voter, and surprise — it’s not Bitcoin. It’s sovereignty.



For Bitcoiners, sovereignty is sacred. It is the highest unspoken commandment, “to thine ownself be sovereign.” Bitcoin, born out of frustration with centralized financial systems, has evolved into a global movement for people reclaiming individual freedom and control.&nbsp;



But true sovereignty goes beyond financial freedom. It means having control in every aspect of our lives — especially over our bodies. At its core, sovereignty is the power to consent, and nowhere is that principle more urgent than in the fight for reproductive rights in the US.



The reversal of Roe v. Wade is not just a political setback; it’s a direct attack on the most essential form of sovereignty: control over your own body. As part of a community that champions freedom through technology, I ask myself why there hasn’t been more discussion about the erosion of freedoms that exist beyond the blockchain.



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-blockchain-not-synonymous">Crypto and blockchain are not synonymous</a>



Bitcoin operates on consent: Independent actors are economically incentivized to maintain the network, with each participant free to join or leave at any time. No one can censor your transactions or interfere with your financial choices. No one tells you what you can and cannot do with your magic internet money. Now imagine applying the same principle to reproductive rights.



The right to decide what happens to your own body is just as essential as the right to decide what you do with your money. True freedom means agency and autonomy over what happens to the stuff that is yours — not just your digital assets, but your own body too. Without both, you’re only halfway free…which isn&#8217;t very free at all.



Bitcoin’s magic appeals to people across the political spectrum — from libertarians to progressives to your cousin who lives in a van. It’s always been about one thing: individual freedom. Freedom from centralized banks, from nosy governments, from unjust and oppressive systems. If we’re going to talk about sovereignty in Bitcoin, we should <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nft-artist-raises-3-million-to-support-abortion-rights-groups">extend that conversation to all forms of autonomy</a>, including reproductive rights.



Just as we fight government interference in our transactions, we should also be fighting government interference in our personal medical decisions, including those between a woman and her healthcare provider.



Donad Trump’s policies, including the reversal of Roe v. Wade, directly impact my personal sovereignty as a woman living in Texas. For a movement built on individual liberty, it’s worth examining how political support can coexist with policies that restrict bodily autonomy.&nbsp;



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/identity-eu-citizens-privacy-surveillance">Self-sovereign identity is not enough</a>



Financial freedom and reproductive rights are just two points on a broader spectrum of individual sovereignty. While we may never be completely sovereign individuals, we can acknowledge how deeply interconnected these freedoms are. For me, Bitcoin has always represented freedom in all its forms — financial and personal. True sovereignty means having control over our futures, our finances and our bodies.



After all, what’s the point of living in a country where my bitcoin is protected, but my uterus is not?



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Bitcoiners who value sovereignty should also defend reproductive rights

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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OpenSea dropped a <a href="https://x.com/dfinzer/status/1853462725742985713">cryptic tweet</a> yesterday, hinting at a “new OpenSea” coming in December 2024.



What’s OpenSea cooking? No one knows, but a waitlist to the new version of OpenSea has racked up about 308k wallets sign-ups so far.



<a href="https://x.com/basedkarbon/status/1853533964822356317?s=46&amp;t=yjAdM2ddX0KgGQimu7jcDQ">Initial speculation</a> is pointing to an OpenSea airdrop token, despite the NFT platform’s <a href="https://x.com/Arthur_0x/status/1467935033004474374">strong hints historically</a> at taking the IPO route.



Of all the major NFT marketplaces, OpenSea is the only player that has yet to launch a token. Blur, LooksRare, X2Y2, Tensor and Sudoswap all have a live token, while Magic Eden <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/magic-eden-announces-me-airdrop">announced</a> plans to launch one in August.



A user leaderboard that tracked rewards for usage was also spotted in OpenSea’s private beta, which the official OpenSea X account has <a href="https://x.com/waleswoosh/status/1853512770374729963">retweeted</a>.



If OpenSea is indeed launching a token, that’s cool, but it feels far too little, too late. NFT markets are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-hyperspace-nft-shutter">down bad</a>, with total NFT market caps down about 97% from their 2022 peaks.



The points meta was hot in early 2024, but it’s since faded off, so a points program built on NFT trading seems highly unlikely.



For these reasons, it’s hard to imagine OpenSea doubling down on an NFT-only strategy.



In Solana land, Magic Eden has already <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/magic-eden-announces-me-airdrop">pivoted</a> to fungible token trading of BTC and ETH with a mobile-centric strategy on its own Magic Eden wallet.



Based on its X account, Tensor seems to be persisting with an NFT product. The Solana NFT marketplace is still <a href="https://dune.com/ilemi/solana-nfts">seeing</a> an average of $3 to $6 million weekly trading volumes.



Blur’s last tweet was almost four months ago and Zora has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/zora-uniswap-onchain-nft-secondary-market">pivoted</a> to capitalize on memecoin trading with its new “ERC-20z” token standard that allows NFTs to be tokenized into fungible tokens.



Most other NFT trading marketplaces have <a href="https://dune.com/hildobby/ethereum-nfts">negligible</a> daily trading volumes of no more than $22k, and are pretty much dead.



OpenSea hasn’t had a great year. The once-dominant player was brutally <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blur-opensea-nft-volume-traders-airdrop">outcompeted</a> by Blur, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/layoffs-opensea-nfts-lido">laid off</a> 50% of its staff in November 2023, and then received a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-issues-wells-notice-opensea-nfts">Wells notice</a> from the SEC in August that alleged its NFTs were securities.



Keep an eye out for details on <a href="https://x.com/NadavAHollander/status/1849251664311562596">OpenSea 2.0</a> at Devcon next week.



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OpenSea plans comeback with 2.0 overhaul

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<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/swift">Swift</a>, UBS Asset Management and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/chainlink">Chainlink</a> announced today the successful conclusion of a pilot project demonstrating the integration of traditional payment systems with tokenized assets.



Part of the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/monetary-authority-of-singapore">Monetary Authority of Singapore</a>’s Project Guardian, the pilot shows how financial institutions can use the Swift network for the settlement of tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions.



Traditional fund processes, particularly in the $63 trillion mutual fund industry, are often hampered by inefficiencies, manual interventions and settlement delays that lead to increased costs and reduced liquidity. This pilot aims to bridge the gap between digital assets and fiat-based systems across Swift’s extensive global network, streamlining processes for the payment leg without requiring a complete shift to onchain transactions.



Using Chainlink’s platform for token minting and burning alongside Swift’s infrastructure, financial institutions can now facilitate the tokenized fund lifecycle — from subscriptions to redemptions.



Chainlink has been <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/banks-can-10x-the-blockchain-industry-says-chainlink-co-founder">working with Swift</a> since 2023, and the pilot builds on <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/banks-swift-crypto-transaction-trials">previous collaborations</a> aimed at enhancing liquidity and operational efficiency within the tokenized fund landscape.



MAS’s Project Guardian promotes asset tokenization to improve financial market functions, and this trial used existing Swift rails to circumvent the need for new onchain infrastructure.



Swift strategy head Jonathan Ehrenfeld noted the initiative aligns with Swift’s mission to provide secure, scalable options for financial institutions exploring digital asset classes and currencies. <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sergey-nazarov">Sergey Nazarov</a>, Chainlink’s co-founder, highlighted the significance of this off-chain payment capability, emphasizing its potential to increase capital flow and expand digital asset accessibility across TradFi institutions.



As the financial industry increasingly explores digital assets, these kinds of interoperable solutions pave the way for broader adoption and operational efficiency across global markets.



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Swift, Chainlink wrap tokenization pilot

David Canellis

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Harry Potter ran headfirst into a brick wall at Platform 9¾ to transcend into the Wizarding World.



We’re about to do something similar with bitcoin.



This is it. After the next few days, there are no more immediate catalysts and prophecies to fulfill.



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>The Bitcoin halving: The network cut issuance in half almost exactly 200 days ago. Cycle-maxis predicted it would inevitably lead to a supply shock one year later, as is tradition.</li>



<li>US election: Always occurs six-to-eight months after the halving — and the past two elections have preceded a full bitcoin send to all-time highs.</li>
</ol>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdyi4f4aC6J-h1KAvAOVSOEQhQPmJkaHcQR5wPkZrGXF1G67EPEqoCizmSo5ViPBhsJBaMXzcTVqnuvVNoOfkdgLsv3wRzpE_q9hp2r_vHeAK_sT7LlIMJC5Rw6cT07pKTz3HS77SsrpRyIngumYgZz9GM?key=QXRKwa8Zf3eBvSk-VaXX-TJn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This chart plots bitcoin rallies around the election against each other, as if they all started at once. The dotted line is Election Day (today), and the orange circles are halvings.</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin rallied from $720 to nearly $20,000 in the 400 or so days after Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. That’s over 27x in a little over a year.



BTC then went 4.2x — from $16,300 to $69,000— in the year following Biden’s win in 2020.



Brainiacs would, however, quickly point out that only two or three halving-election cycles tells us nothing statistically significant about anything.&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s massive rallies over the years are then just price discovery. And perhaps, elections and halvings are less significant than the global liquidity cycle, for instance (which, coincidentally, is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rg1wCWCLdrc">headed</a> for an uptrend!)



While the global liquidity prophecy plays out over the longer-term, Trump’s odds on Polymarket have been tipped as an immediate driver of bitcoin’s price.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcEHD3KsD-NCQSkkD9z_U_i8Rum42jhwauJUZ8AF5BHk4SQH2Y9gnlOGagNBGegZa-wT-soMdfSU_wYvqzqApP2e_tToZyTomvJZ8E_yGnOQ-C4JB-kpP16v6veqOeqa3q-vsX1A-T7dUlZt4J3AMayzKK5?key=QXRKwa8Zf3eBvSk-VaXX-TJn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A god candle is inevitable if Trump wins, the thinking goes</figcaption></figure>



The chart above maps the price of bitcoin (the area in green) to Trump’s odds on Polymarket, in orange. The shaded purple areas indicate when Trump’s odds and BTC/USD were correlated.



They only align about half the time, which probably says they’re not really correlated at all. Although, the two have closely tracked each other since early October.



Still, we’re in uncharted territory. Bitcoin hit all-time high before the halving this time around, an apparent anomaly in the cycle prophecy — just like The Boy Who Lived.



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Bitcoin’s election market moment has arrived

Katherine Ross

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Election day is finally here.&nbsp;



This morning, Donald Trump is leading on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. And if we’re looking at the good ol’ data and polls from places like <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/">538</a>, then the odds are pretty even.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeV2iALX0Ny2VNJMV89i3CqQV_1mC7IvUpAzMjKbeOq_f-4DFv9b351QzKJzVSIAPKnm0MR_o6VaQxglBousw1dRIub5gIAv-DCUlNqOmE8pfKdg2l8OcB9kBSsNit_4ctb0cP69ZBicZHDzYOo_u1-tG0?key=QXRKwa8Zf3eBvSk-VaXX-TJn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: 538</figcaption></figure>



We’re in wait-and-see mode until tonight after the polls close and we can start seeing how voters, well, voted.&nbsp;



The overall crypto market’s stuck in wait-and-see mode too, according to GSR research analyst Toe Bautista. But the good news is that he thinks that bitcoin is “bulletproof” from whoever wins.&nbsp;



In fact, it seems unlikely that we’ll see a solid rally once a winner is announced. If anything, there could be a small move if there’s a Trump win, according to analysts.



However, from an altcoin perspective, Bautista pointed out that a lot of firms have been in the wings, biding their time to see what happens to other token launches, and how the election plays out.&nbsp;



“Nobody really wants to launch, and there&#8217;s not a whole lot of capital that wants to deploy when you don&#8217;t know if the company you&#8217;re going to be deploying at is going to get sued by the SEC in two months. And so … rather directionally, a Trump win … if you have…this bell curve of outcomes at least cuts off your left curve of insane risk, where Gary Gensler goes scorched earth on crypto, kind of what he&#8217;s been doing over the past two years,” Bautista said.



“If you can cut out that side of your outcome, then your expected value is much higher,” he continued, adding that it’s really only a scenario that plays out if Trump wins…and keeps to his former promise of somehow removing SEC chair Gary Gensler from his office. Though, I’ll note that our very own Casey Wagner <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-gary-gensler-sec-post-election-outlook">isn’t so sure it’ll be easy</a> for Trump to fire Gensler.&nbsp;



Bautista joins <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bullish-rally-timeline-election">Empire’s Jason Yanowitz</a> in saying that carving out an all-time high in the fourth quarter is a big ask though Bautista isn’t going to discount a potential move to $80,000.&nbsp;



It’s also not stopping him from looking ahead to the first and second quarters of next year. If the macro conditions hold and remain favorable, it’s likely to push bitcoin higher.&nbsp;



“It’s very easy to see a world in which bitcoin goes to $80,000 whether that’s Q1 or by the end of the month, your guess is really as good as mine,” he told me (but his guess is definitely better than mine). Bautista is really focused on the direction of crypto, and he said that’s when we’ll see the action.



Price targets, shmice targets. Let’s see how today’s election plays out.



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America votes, putting crypto’s campaign dollars to the test

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It’s Election Day Eve! I certainly don’t envy the campaign workers (or the candidates) for that matter, during these crucial final hours.



The Blockworks news team will be working late tomorrow providing you with all the updates on the most influential races and market moves. But for now, here’s a quick preview of a key Senate race I’ve been following closely.&nbsp;



Senator Sherrod Brown will face off against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, who is vying for his US Senate seat.&nbsp;



Brown, the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has largely been seen by the crypto industry as an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-harris-team-crypto">adversary</a>. He holds a central position in deciding which pieces of legislation make it to committees for markup and to the floor for a vote, and he hasn’t exactly been pushing for crypto-focused bills. Brown was also not one of the 12 Democratic Senators who voted to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 bill.&nbsp;



Moreno, a car salesman, captured the industry’s attention when he went up against a key member of the so-called “anti-crypto army.” Plus, he’s made crypto a central part of his messaging on the campaign trail, vowing to block a CBDC and fight against those looking to “destroy crypto.”&nbsp;



Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake-associated crypto super PAC, has spent more than $19 million supporting Moreno through the end of August, federal <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00836221/?tab=spending">filings</a> show. 



Now, as the race heads into the eleventh hour, things are looking tight. As of Nov. 1, Brown currently leads by just <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/ohio/brown-vs-moreno">0.3%</a> in an average of national polls.



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Tomorrow will decide major Senate race in US crypto’s election efforts

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Election Day is tomorrow. Polls in recent days show the race remains very tight.&nbsp;



Knowing whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next US president is expected to impact crypto markets in some way, though exactly how is something we won’t know until the next few days (at least) play out.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Let’s rewind to May for a moment, when a couple things grabbed the crypto industry’s attention: The Trump campaign started <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-accepts-crypto-donations-2024-election">accepting crypto donations</a> and President Joe Biden <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-fails-to-override-anti-sab121-veto">vetoed</a> a resolution (deemed to be pro-crypto) that would have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-act-fit21-with-bipartisan-support">invalidated</a> the SEC’s SAB 121.&nbsp;&nbsp;



That month, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mike-novogratz-crypto-us-election">likened</a> crypto opposition (more prevalent on the Democratic side) to criticizing dogs — noting the tens of millions of Americans that own each.&nbsp;



Later, Trump spoke explicitly about his support for crypto — at a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-bitcoin-mining-meeting">meeting</a> with bitcoin mining executives in June and then at the Bitcoin 2024 conference the following month. Among his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">promises</a> at the latter event in Nashville included firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler and stopping government sales of seized bitcoin. Also in July, the GOP mentioned ending the “unlawful” crackdown on crypto in its party platform.



Harris has made a few comments in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/26/crypto-kamala-harris-bitcoin/">support</a> of emerging technologies (including crypto) and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-kamala-harris-crypto-silence">pledged</a> to bolster Black men’s rights to safely invest in crypto — but has not shared many details. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has said he expects Harris to be <a href="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/1845845163588907486">more supportive</a> of crypto than Biden has been, but less favorable to the industry than Trump.



Crypto was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2024-elections-crypto-policy-outlook">not mentioned</a> in the Harris/Trump or Tim Walz/JD Vance debates. And Harris has not shared what she would do about Gensler — a point Blockchain Association’s Ron Hammond said industry participants <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-06/kamala-harris-donors-privately-want-ftc-s-lina-khan-sec-s-gary-gensler-removed">wanted more clarity</a> on from her.



Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/harris-trump-crypto-stances-coinbase">gave Harris credit</a> for engaging with the crypto community, but lauded Trump’s more comprehensive remarks on the topic.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While the latest New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html">poll</a> was largely unchanged from previous ones (national polling average shows Harris leading 49% to 48%, as of Monday morning), Trump’s big lead (according to Polymarket odds) has <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730768185481">shrunk</a> from several days ago.



Bitcoin was trading below $69,000 on Monday morning, down from the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">$73,000-plus level</a> it reached last week.&nbsp;



Andre Dragosch, head of Bitwise’s European research, said in a note that while bitcoin’s correlation to US presidential election odds have increased lately, its “macro correlations” to traditional assets (like US stocks or gold) remain higher.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc5M3NC2jbdr9rZpO0lJSwLahNlgnS2o0aMCJeZRQUT2uLLcGVK9kpkvhuFJvxZLT2Z2WNtsgRys2OHsGDDKrXZPNn8bzrmd5D4ja36dYoozhpIZk0DslB1WmMFEDkxYnWJ0c4mxgrhTz1XJCikFc3e60de?key=cXCJZdMpy9bIyUA6ydef-FrN" alt=""/></figure>



Bitwise estimates show, if the election was held today, that a Trump victory would boost bitcoin’s price by 10.1% (sending it to an all-time high), while a Harris win would spur a 9.8% decline for the asset.



Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar is among those expecting that the election may only have a short-term impact on crypto markets.



“In the medium and longer term, we believe that the outcome of this presidential race does not materially alter the trends supporting bitcoin, which include continued government deficit spending, expansive Fed monetary policy and ongoing bitcoin adoption,” he said.



Many have reminded us that what politicians say they’ll do, and what they actually do, can differ materially. So it’s safe to say the election results will represent a new chapter to this evolving story, but not the end.



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Weighing the Harris/Trump crypto impact on Election Eve 

Jack Kubinec

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The Solana-based confidential computing startup Arcium has acquired one of its Web2 competitors in Inpher, the team told Lightspeed exclusively.



As part of the deal, Arcium will take over Inpher’s core team and technology. The terms were not disclosed. The crypto startup’s acquisition of a non-crypto startup comes shortly after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stripe-bridge-acquisition-stablecoin-infrastructure">Stripe’s acquisition</a> of the stablecoin platform Bridge raised hopes that the market for mergers and acquisitions could be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-dydx-founder-comeback">heating up</a> in crypto.&nbsp;



Arcium started as a Solana privacy protocol named Elusiv before rebranding to a generalized confidential computing startup. In May, the team <a href="https://x.com/ArciumHQ/status/1788557786537689447">announced</a> a $5.5 million strategic funding round led by Greenfield Capital with the pledge to help developers create “fully confidential applications onchain.” Arcium is yet to launch.&nbsp;



During a conversation at a coffee shop in Manhattan, I recently asked the company’s CEO Yannik Schrade why the world needs confidential computing.



“Want to tell me your social security number? No?” he asked in response. He added that sensitive data is often stored on the internet in an encrypted format, but when information is converted, it needs to be decrypted, which leads to a “single point of failure” that could expose sensitive information. Schrade added that use cases like collaborative AI training could use confidential computing to mitigate the risk of data breaches.&nbsp;



Schrade called the Inpher team a research-driven “powerhouse” that has made important contributions to cryptography. “Now we have a very important set of PhDs in the Solana ecosystem,” Schrade said.&nbsp;



Inpher raised a total of $14 million since 2016, with backers including JPMorgan and the Amazon Alexa Fund, <a href="https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inpher-io/company_financials">according</a> to Crunchbase. It had lately begun <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/inphers-enterprise-ready-securai-performantly-protects-llms-with-nvidia-confidential-computing-302138584.html">marketing</a> itself as a service for interacting with AI privately and securely.



Confidentiality is a core component of crypto, which can theoretically serve as a means by which multiple parties can transact or collaborate without needing to trust each other. But so far, some of the more futuristic possible applications for technology like zero-knowledge proofs — which can verify a message is true without revealing its contents — are yet to be realized.



Schrade poked a nicotine pouch into his lip before explaining his approach:



“We&#8217;re not just doing some abstract research papers that at the end of the day maybe nobody would use, but instead we are making practical technology, practical research and combining that with interfaces that developers can just use without having to learn any new paradigms.”



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Solana-based confidential computing startup acquires Web2 competitor

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With a day to go before the US presidential election, prediction markets give an edge to Trump over Harris.&nbsp;



On the crypto side, <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1730734890176">Polymarket</a> gives Trump roughly 58/42, and leads in open interest. Adding to the crypto landscape, Drift Protocol&#8217;s <a href="https://app.drift.trade/bet">BET platform</a>, built on the Solana blockchain, has emerged as a notable contender. BET touts a daily trading volume of $20 million and gives Trump a 61% chance as of 11 am ET today.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfdM7wjI-h65LDjzDDNaK1M9e30Ji4TjcO4C2MXZY5aNJy7mLEzmCMu3kHBddrPUbP3cxLwVWWChNXVwUPkj8ntxjRK4uUXYXdr5vzTu78PsIbgQJxCT8ClA944pjnReSGEpuJ8Gk69WgJxITgpeB2GxlnC?key=bSpzHIS5pf4Y_NFngTYvnwVZ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Polymarket all-time highs in open interest. Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/polymarket">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927">Betfair Exchange</a>, a UK-based betting platform, reports total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (about $176 million).



In the US, <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections">Kalshi</a>, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kalshi-election-markets-cftc">recently legalized</a> event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its launch. <a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a>, which has the candidates neck and neck, maintains a significant user base, though specific open interest figures are not publicly disclosed.



<a href="https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/introducing-the-presidential-election-market/">Robinhood</a> and <a href="https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=7331319912025010701&amp;detail=contract_details">Interactive Brokers</a> joined Kalshi as betting options available to US citizens after the latter two won a ruling against the CFTC to allow election outcome trading. Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on Oct. 3. Robinhood’s open interest numbers aren&#8217;t readily available.



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Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris

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The idea of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) is kind of incredible, when you really think about it.



What is a DAO?



A DAO is like a private company that is perfectly okay with hundreds of token (equity) holders debating publicly on an open forum about product and organizational strategy.&nbsp;



A private company where the core security underlying the company’s product (smart contracts) are fully viewable, where all the data you need to <a href="https://x.com/PrimordialAA/status/1848393812777066640">write</a> a scathing data analysis on a company you don’t like is readily available.



In the non-Web3 world, markets would kill to have any clue as to what their competitors are thinking of launching, let alone detailed forum discussions of how that conversation is taking shape. Having all that information out in the open would invite endless media and regulatory scrutiny, taking precious time away from actually building to fend off annoying lines of inquiry.



These are handicaps that no startup wants. And yet in Web3, <a href="https://deepdao.io">$21.4 billion</a> of value rests on these norms. In Web3, it’s par for the course.



Of course, most DAOs are actually only partially decentralized.



When Uniswap announced its plans <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-uniswap-layer-2">around Unichain</a> last month, Stanford Blockchain Club’s head of governance Billy Gao <a href="https://x.com/__billygao/status/1847776831782691226">said</a> the announcement left most DAO delegates “in the dark,” and excluded them via their lack of “a voice at any stage of the process — whether through forums, private discussions or any other means.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">1/ <a href="https://twitter.com/Uniswap?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Uniswap</a>’s sudden launch of <a href="https://twitter.com/unichain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@unichain</a> has raised serious questions about DAO governance and caught many of us off guard. Is this a bold leap forward for DeFi, or a worrying step back for decentralization? Here’s our breakdown of what unfolded, why it matters, and what’s next.&mdash; Billy Gao (@__billygao) <a href="https://twitter.com/__billygao/status/1847776831782691226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



It’s not just Uniswap either. Optimism DAO’s governance contracts are not controlled by its tokenholders, so voting with OP largely serves as an informal signal to the Optimism Foundation (<a href="https://gov.optimism.io/t/accelerated-decentralization-proposal-for-optimism/8875">for now</a>).



And it’s widely known that most DAO treasuries or smart contracts are still controlled by a few trusted stakeholders via a multisig wallet.



So when we tout DAOs as decentralized autonomous organizations, in truth, there are many shades of gray within that spectrum of decentralization. The devil’s in the details.



When I asked Tally founder and CEO Dennison Bertram about it, he begrudgingly agreed that DAOs have a ways to go regarding decentralization, but also that partial transparency is still better than complete opaqueness, which would be “much more dangerous.”



Bertram pointed to how Twitter/X under Elon Musk could unilaterally turn off its API, or how Facebook choked off the wildly popular FarmVille game by Zynga from its platform.



Yet, despite the many shortcomings around DAOs, the real silver lining — I think — is the industry’s overarching commitment to the values of decentralization, which to me seems wildly underrated.



DAOs can hand-wave and virtue signal about decentralizing all they like, but the fact that they operate in an industry where “decentralization” is still held up as a beloved virtue is what allows the crypto industry to call out and question the centralization vectors that DAOs are still riddled with.



That informal institution has slowly been eroded and will only continue to do so as crypto continues to go “mainstream.” Cherish it while it still lasts.



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