SKALE Network is an open-source, decentralized "elastic" blockchain network designed to scale Web3 applications. SKALE chains are configurable, application-specific blockchains (often called "dynamic shards") that exist one layer above the Ethereum blockchain. Developers can rent SKALE chains that each act as a private Ethereum-compatible smart contract platform with faster block times and the ability to process more transactions per second. According to core developer SKALE Labs, SKALE chains can run full-state smart contracts, support decentralized storage, execute rollup contracts (a layer-2 scaling solution), and run machine learning algorithms using the EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine). In combination with Ethereum, SKALE Network aims to allow Web3 apps to compete with traditional apps on a cost and performance basis.


SKALE

Casey Wagner

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Trading app Robinhood on Wednesday added four new cryptocurrencies to its platform: solana, cardano, XRP and memecoin pepe. The move comes after the SEC has, in separate instances, named both SOL and Cardano’s ADA token securities.&nbsp;



The SEC classified SOL and ADA, along with 11 other crypto assets, as securities in its June 2023 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-sec-rulemaking-appeals-court">lawsuit against Coinbase</a>. That suit is ongoing. Both tokens were also called out in the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-wells-notice">Wells notice</a> the securities regulator sent to Crypto.com last month.&nbsp;



Robinhood’s move comes as the crypto industry continues to ride a wave of euphoria and higher prices in the wake of Donald Trump’s win last week. His promises to overhaul SEC leadership and make the US a hub for digital asset businesses have many feeling optimistic.&nbsp;



But let’s consider a scenario. Even if Trump replaces Gary Gensler with another current commissioner, most legal experts agree that Trump can’t actually remove Gensler entirely. So he’d still be a commissioner even if, say, Mark Uyeda becomes acting chair in January.&nbsp;



To drop a lawsuit (such as the one against Coinbase), SEC staff would have to propose it to the commissioners, who would then vote. Even if the vote passes, the SEC would still have to have the motion approved by the court.&nbsp;



A lot of ‘ifs’ here. I wouldn’t hold your breath.



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HOOD cashes in on the Trump-fueled crypto rally

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The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in October, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.6% — in line with analyst estimates but still putting prices higher than where the Fed would like.&nbsp;



So-called Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also came in as anticipated, rising 0.3% over the month and 3.3% annually.&nbsp;



The CPI for the 12 months ended in September was 2.4%. This latest reading should assure investors that the Fed, as the latest dot plot had indicated, will continue on its easing path through the end of the year. 



Odds of a second 25-basis point interest rate cut in December are now at 82%, up from 58% a day ago, according to CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a>.&nbsp;



Given today’s unsurprising numbers, the focus now shifts to 2025, when President-elect Donald Trump will move back into the White House and potentially complicate the central bank’s mission with his ambitious economic plans. 



The print comes a day before Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/events/2024/24gp-powell">speak</a> at the Fed Bank of Dallas, so maybe we will get a sense of how he’s thinking about economic policy then. Markets will be listening, and so will we.



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CPI sets the stage for more of the same from the Fed in December

Jack Kubinec

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Jito, the Solana outfit whose software currently drives a majority of the blockchain’s income, experienced a “system-wide outage” this morning.&nbsp;



The outage affected Jito bundles which process multiple transactions in one go and are popular with traders looking to do things like arbitrage. Jito’s standstill came one day after it processed a record 15 million bundles in one day, shattering its previous high of 13.9 million.&nbsp;



Roughly 90% of Solana validators responsible for running the blockchain make use of Jito’s software, so one immediate concern was whether the Solana network itself would experience an outage. However, bundles are just one piece of the Jito-Solana client. Transactions continued to be processed throughout the outage, Jito co-founder Lucas Bruder <a href="https://x.com/buffalu__/status/1856722608697250112">told</a> me on X.



During what has now been a month of consecutive record-breaking demand for access to the Solana blockchain, Jito and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/solana-wallets-grass-airdrop">other key pieces of Solana infrastructure</a> have strained to process the load.&nbsp;



Alongside the all-time high in bundles, Jito MEV tips, which are extra fees paid by traders hoping to get their transaction prioritized, are currently roughly double what they were even during the memecoin craze of this summer. Yesterday, users paid some $6.2 million in extra MEV tips to validators.



Jito validators started complaining of performance issues at around 4:00 Wednesday morning, but the outage was declared at 9:30 am, and bundles started working again by 11 am. Solana DeFi protocols Jupiter and Save both had features break during the Jito outage.



Jito made a Telegram <a href="https://t.me/+Kg-WnMfiQJAwZjQx">channel</a> in late October to update customers on its block engine, the piece of software that reorders transactions to order Jito blocks as lucratively as possible. The chat shows Jito has had two other system issues since Saturday.&nbsp;



For some Solana watchers, the incident was an interesting experiment in what the blockchain’s fee markets would do without Jito’s infrastructure. Blockworks Research analyst Dan Smith posted a <a href="https://x.com/smyyguy/status/1856736831917732258">chart</a> showing that during Jito’s outage, the blockchain’s median priority fee briefly jumped. That means that while Jito was down, it essentially became more expensive to land transactions on the blockchain. The median fee went back down when Jito started working again.



“Pretty cool … the theory actually works in practice,” Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko wrote in response. Jito is a bit slower and more reliable than run of the mill transaction fees, Yakovenko added. Some transaction senders pay a premium for this reliability, and this serves to “actually lower the median fees for everyone else,” Yakovenko said.



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Jito bundler breaks amid record demand

Macauley Peterson

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Some of Ethereum&#8217;s foremost thinkers tackled Ethereum&#8217;s evolving identity and the challenges of unifying its fragmented ecosystem during a Devcon panel <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/JMZcRMy-Oow?si=9A_xZZ6hyW5PCuKM">today</a> in Bangkok.



Vitalik Buterin, Stephen Goldfeder, Ben Jones and Jesse Pollack, discussed the problems faced by Ethereum and its rollup-centric roadmap, fielding questions from Hart Lambur of Uma and Across Protocol.



Lambur highlighted the progress Ethereum has made, enabled by &#8220;blobs&#8221; that slashed layer-2 costs and increased transactions per second (TPS). Yet, Ethereum&#8217;s rapid scaling has led to fragmentation, sparking concerns about interoperability and user experience.



Buterin lamented the current need for custom solutions whenever users operate across multiple chains. He likened the ideal Ethereum experience to credit card use in Web2, where everything seamlessly connects behind the scenes.



&#8220;If Ethereum cannot meet that level of experience,&#8221; Buterin warned, &#8220;it’s going to lose to things that do.&#8221; Still, he praised the commitment of L2 and wallet developers tackling these challenges head on.



The panel discussed a crucial concern: the competition for users and developers among Base, Optimism, and Arbitrum, each vying for liquidity and mind share. Stephen Goldfeder voiced a shared sentiment: Users shouldn’t be burdened with infrastructure complexities. He advocated for a &#8220;unified Ethereum,&#8221; envisioning seamless transitions across chains within the ecosystem.



Jones and Pollack each echoed the need for interoperability without restrictive silos, referencing Ethereum’s Superchain vision to support user-friendly, cross-chain interactions, suggesting the competition between the major “constellations” of L2 networks is a bit of an illusion.



A key challenge lies in bridging technical and experiential gaps. While Jones argued that EVM-equivalence should theoretically simplify deployment, current reality presents high overhead for developers.



Vitalik stressed the need for easier asset movement across chains and agreed with Pollack that interfaces which &#8220;hide addresses,&#8221; that often confuse users in favor of names, would help. Pollack’s focus on simplicity in wallets and interfaces, underscored Base&#8217;s focus on building “open source on open standards,” aimed at empowering users even if centralized entities — like Coinbase — were to fail.



Among the concrete steps the panel explored was the need for on-chain configurations for L2 networks. Parameters such as chain IDs and other identifiers, are foundational for distinguishing each L2 within the Ethereum ecosystem. By establishing standard data points across these networks, wallets, dapps and users can easily recognize and interact with various L2s without needing custom configurations for each one. Expanding these standards could enable deeper interoperability and more seamless interactions between L2s.



One significant benefit of standard on-chain configs is the potential for a universal light client — a tool that verifies and interacts with multiple L2s without requiring chain-specific adaptations. That way a single light client could authenticate transactions and verify data across all participating L2s. This reduces technical friction, creating a more integrated network where assets, data, and applications flow easily across chains.



Standardized protocols like <a href="https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/rip-7755-contract-standard-for-cross-l2-calls-facilitation/20776/4">RIP-7755</a> and ERC standards that don’t require protocol changes could facilitate cross-chain operations, including advanced proof structures, Pollack said.



Jones and Buterin emphasized the long-term goal of bringing rollups to <a href="https://medium.com/l2beat/introducing-stages-a-framework-to-evaluate-rollups-maturity-d290bb22befe">Stage 1 or 2</a>, to mitigate inherent governance risks. Fast, secure bridging was recognized as an urgent need, especially with a push for wallet innovations that incorporate chain abstraction.



Ultimately, the panel articulated a shared mission: enhancing user experience without compromising Ethereum’s decentralized ethos, aiming for an ecosystem where users, not chains, remain at the center.



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Unified Ethereum? Devcon panelists take on fragmentation challenges

Katherine Ross

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Bitcoin at $90,000 is a reality.&nbsp;



Right now, a lot of market signals point to a continued run-up for bitcoin, though it quickly backed down from $90,000 after initially breaking the new all-time high.&nbsp;



One interesting data point to look at when we have this kind of price action is what’s happening over on CME.



For example, traders are clearly ecstatic about the current setup, with CME trading volumes surging to records after the election. This time last week, on Nov. 6, CME notched its highest notional volume day with over $16.4 billion transacted in over 316,000 contracts.



“As Trump’s win became clear, futures premiums began to soar and have since risen above 15% as BTC continued its rally towards $90,000. Despite aggressive positioning, we note that market tops rarely coincide with CME premiums in an uptrend, a promising indicator for now,” K33 analysts wrote. Open interest on CME grew by $2.4 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="878" height="518" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94397" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=878 878w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=442 442w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=371 371w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-8.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: K33</figcaption></figure>



$100,000 is clearly on the table, and it might even be a reality before the end of the year.



“While the market is due for a breather, we expect prices to head in this direction in the coming weeks. Round numbers tend to be extreme volatility triggers, exemplified by BTC’s $10k breakout in 2017,” analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman continued.



“The first $10k visit happened on November 29, 2017, a day seeing intraday highs of $11,465 and intraday lows of $8,579, a high-low spread of a massive 34%. A whipsaw of softer magnitude (19%) happened on November 30 before a firm breakout was established on December 1. An eventual $100,000 breakout is well-shaped up to face mirroring volatility.”



Galaxy’s Alex Thorn noted that Monday’s price action in bitcoin notched the “49th biggest gain in history,” though he was careful to highlight that there was a lot of dramatic price action in the early days of bitcoin.&nbsp;



Anyway, we’re obviously not just watching bitcoin, so I wanted to take a look at how the rally could impact other parts of crypto.&nbsp;



“BTC’s momentum has awoken the animal spirits within perp traders, as funding rates continue to soar above neutral levels for both BTC and altcoins, indicating heavy long positioning,” K33 said.



Tie the election outcome to lower interest rates and bam! You have a pretty favorable DeFi environment.&nbsp;



It’s hard not to be a bull these days.



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Bitcoin at $100k very possible before EOY, analysts say

David Canellis

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Nobody really wonders what the next bitcoin will be anymore.&nbsp;



That’s because Bitcoin won. There’s no “next” Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the next bitcoin and it’s already here. Better to build something else.



It’s natural, then, that a fixation on the next Ethereum would then take over.



After almost a decade of smart contract platforms launching to rival Ethereum, we now have more than 30 coins which you might consider would-be ETH killers.



That includes tokens for newer chains like Sui, Sei, Celestia and TON, as well as older networks such as Cronos, Cardano, Fantom and EOS.



Over the past three years, only 10 have outperformed ETH. TRON’s ETH ratio has jumped about 140%, for instance, while TON’s has doubled.&nbsp;



SOL has appreciated 26% against ETH since this time in 2021, but over the past year it has swelled by 140%.



Solana is indeed the crowd favorite to potentially flip Ethereum somewhere down the line. And while it tends to feel realistic at times, the market is quietly saying otherwise in the current moment.



The first step is stripping away all the noise. In this case, that’s bitcoin.&nbsp;



We’ve already established that Bitcoin doesn’t compete with Ethereum (and most other general-purpose smart contract platforms, for that matter), leaving little reason to compare the two directly.



Now, let’s separate ETH and the so-called ETH killers from the rest of the crypto market. We’re left with three segments: Ethereum (in purple below), Ethereum killers (green) and crypto without bitcoin (blue).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1069" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94389" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=385 385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=391 391w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=328 328w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-6.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



This chart shows the market dominance of each of the three categories over the past 10 years, a period that started just before Ethereum mined its first block in 2015.



Notice that Ethereum’s share of the crypto market excluding bitcoin has practically stayed the same for almost three-quarters of the chart.&nbsp;



Right now, it’s around 22%. Halfway through 2022 it was at under 20%, and five years ago it was less than 15%.&nbsp;



Ethereum killers, meanwhile, altogether make up 18% of the non-bitcoin crypto space, which is about where it was in late 2018 and 2021.



What that says is that Ethereum isn’t really budging in terms of market share. It’s growing at a similar scale and pace to everything else that isn’t bitcoin.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="1068" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94390" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=1600 1600w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=385 385w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=391 391w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=328 328w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/image-7.png?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" /></figure>



All while a rotating cast of smaller coins go through their own trajectories, with most losing significant ground against ETH, whether across three-year timeframes or one month.



The chart above bundles all the ETH killers together and lays them flat against each other.&nbsp;



Clearly, the market is betting on SOL and BNB to continue encroaching on Ethereum’s territory. Both enjoy a market cap of about $100 billion, and there’s an enormous gap between those two and all the others. Cardano is the next best with $20 billion.&nbsp;



At the same time, ETH is headed for $400 billion as we digest the reality of a five-year development cycle for Ethereum’s next big upgrade, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-consensus-beam-chain">Beam Chain</a>, which would help it stay relevant in a world littered with alternative super-fast layer-1s.



Just like how Bitcoin has broken off from the crypto market and now mostly exists within its own orbit, it could be that Ethereum is destined for similar treatment.&nbsp;



In which case, it’s hard to see it going anywhere.



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ETH killers are still no closer to doing the deed

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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I was slightly perplexed by the findings of a new ETF survey that mentions crypto sentiment. Then I read the fine print.



Retail investors are least interested in crypto and ESG ETFs in the next six months, ETF.com’s 2024 global investor survey found. Crypto-related stats in the report, published today, include:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Between 70% and 80% of investors didn’t have any positions in leveraged, inverse, and cryptocurrency ETFs.</li>



<li>“Only” 10% of advisers increased exposure to crypto over the past six months.</li>



<li>Just 7.4% of investors ranked cryptocurrency as one of the top five sectors they want to invest in over the next six months.</li>
</ul>



Gavin Filmore, chief revenue officer at Tidal Financial Group, is quoted as calling that last finding “a shocker” — citing possible “crypto fatigue” among the “overexposed” younger generation.



Given bitcoin’s latest run, I found this surprising. But then it started to make sense as I scrolled down to the methodology. The more than 600 respondents shared their thoughts between Aug. 15 and Oct. 1.



Of course, a lot has happened since then. Donald Trump and a slew of crypto-friendly Congressional candidates notched wins last week and bitcoin just hit a new high at nearly $90,000.&nbsp;



Then there’s the latest interest in US spot bitcoin ETFs, which tallied $1.1 billion of net inflows on their 10th monthiversary yesterday — making that $3.4 billion in the four trading days since the election).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Massive $7.22 billion trading day for the US spot <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> ETFs. Highest volume day since March 14. And the 6th highest day of all time. BlackRock&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24IBIT&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$IBIT</a> lead the way with $4.6 billion followed by Fidelity&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24FBTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$FBTC</a> also squeaking past the $1 billion level <a href="https://t.co/1ThfMBz2PD">https://t.co/1ThfMBz2PD</a> <a href="https://t.co/erjYvRe9Ph">pic.twitter.com/erjYvRe9Ph</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1856117916363604464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Perhaps ironically, the survey is sponsored by Vanguard — an asset management giant that has said <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vanguard-opposes-platforming-eth-etfs">crypto doesn’t belong</a> in “a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio.”



I’m curious to see whether Vanguard’s thoughts about the asset class change in the coming months. And how the answers to similar survey questions shift once post-election sentiment is captured.&nbsp;



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ETF investors lack interest in crypto, report finds?

Zac Cheah

While AI’s potential to benefit humanity is vast, its trajectory under corporate monopolies threatens to concentrate power, excluding most stakeholders from shaping its future. The best way forward? Decentralize AI through community-driven, blockchain-based models and build a transparent, inclusive ecosystem that keeps AI safe, ethical and accessible to everyone.



When OpenAI launched in 2015, it aimed to “benefit all of humanity” with an open source, nonprofit approach. Yet, less than a decade (and much leadership <a href="https://theconversation.com/openai-is-a-nonprofit-corporate-hybrid-a-management-expert-explains-how-this-model-works-and-how-it-fueled-the-tumult-around-ceo-sam-altmans-short-lived-ouster-218340">turmoil</a>) later, its <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openais-stunning-150-billion-valuation-hinges-upending-corporate-structure-2024-09-14/">pivot</a> to a for-profit model — driven by a pressing $6.6 billion debt to investors — has made it clear that corporate interests, not collective benefit, are increasingly shaping AI’s development. The move illustrates a wider trend: Today’s leading AI organizations are becoming tightly controlled, profit-driven and increasingly opaque.



While these changes might be justifiable from a business standpoint, AI’s future shouldn’t rest solely with a few powerful companies. The shift toward private investor-driven AI has the potential for dystopian consequences, excluding grassroots users and developers from contributing meaningfully, just as many were sidelined in the Web2 era.



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-future-is-decentralized-compute-networks">A small group of tech giants are holding AI’s future hostage</a>



To counterbalance this trend, decentralized and community-led AI initiatives are crucial. These would offer an alternative where AI systems remain accessible, safe and unbiased, reducing the impact of profit-driven “black box” models.



Today, AI development is dominated by a few major players — OpenAI-Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia — all racing toward monopolization. By controlling critical parts of the AI stack — models, training data and applications — companies can maximize profits, keeping revenues and innovation tightly siloed.



Moreover, cloud infrastructure controlled by Amazon and Google provides most of the compute and storage resources needed to train and deploy AI systems. This centralization comes at a steep cost: <a href="https://akash.network/blog/the-rise-of-decentralized-compute/">According</a> to Akash Network, grassroots developers will spend over $679 billion on cloud computing in 2024 — already unaffordable for most small-medium players, with costs likely to rise as demand grows.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cloud-services-0xresearch-competition">Cloud computing is operated by an anti-competitive oligopoly, says Osuri</a>



Within Big Tech’s walled gardens, users are given limited, conditional access to AI tools and APIs — often at exorbitant prices. Because AI’s development has become a winner-takes-all game, corporate interests will continue to compromise long-term ethical considerations in favor of immediate revenue. OpenAI’s recent dissolution of its Superalignment team, as Jan Leike <a href="https://apnews.com/article/openai-jan-leike-safety-ilya-8a7ba341e06a66e9a7935bb06214edcb">pointed out</a>, suggests that safety and accountability are taking a backseat to high-profile product launches.



Decentralization is the best antidote to BigAI monopolies. Ongoing blockchain AI innovations let user and developer communities become active, incentivized contributors in AI’s evolution. Projects like KIP Protocol have <a href="https://www.kip.pro/">pioneered</a> decentralized ownership of the AI stack, allowing individuals to contribute data for model training without needing to build the models themselves. This lowers entry barriers, while crypto-based payment rails enable non-intermediated profit-sharing among stakeholders.



Read more from our opinion section: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/dixon-read-write-own-broken-internet">The internet is broken. What if we can fix it?: On Chris Dixon’s ‘Read Write Own’</a>



Similarly, Akash Network’s decentralized marketplace provides storage and compute resources at roughly <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/0xresearch/09906c88-7381-11ee-b6e0-0f7a3092d4d3">80% lower costs</a> than centralized providers. Projects such as Flock.io are already leveraging Akash’s infrastructure for decentralized AI training.



Beyond these examples, decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) projects are one of DeFi’s most active areas, <a href="https://research.nansen.ai/articles/object-oriented-finance">according</a> to Nansen. With initiatives like NodeFi, end-users can monetize excess compute or storage on personal devices. By offering governance rights to node owners, projects in this space can take community-owned AI to the next level.



Funding trends reflect this momentum. Decentralized AI projects are drawing attention from investors, with AI startups raising 30% of total funding in Q3 2024 — an impressive $52.2 billion, <a href="https://stocklytics.com/content/ai-startups-raised-11-8-billion-in-q3-total-funding-hit-a-record-53-billion-ytd/">according</a> to Stocklytics. Blockchain AI ventures like Wire Network and OpenGradient have <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/vc-roundup-capital-flows-ai-blockchain">emerged</a> alongside traditional players, and the gap between decentralized and centralized AI presents immense opportunities for growth.



This influx of funding is more than just a financial trend; it signals a shift in industry priorities towards decentralized alternatives. Decentralized AI offers a feasible, attractive alternative to BigAI, promising an inclusive, equitable and accessible future. BigAI is moving at breakneck speed to establish dominance, and the time to support decentralized alternatives is now. There is no looking back.



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Big Tech can’t own AI’s future if we decentralize it first

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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With ongoing talk about how the regulatory winds are now set to turn in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mike-novogratz-on-trump-presidency">crypto’s favor </a>after the election, one can look at software wallet Exodus to see how an SEC shakeup could have a real impact on industry companies.



I checked in with executives at Exodus, which had its public listing <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/05/09/2878404/0/en/Listing-of-Exodus-Class-A-Common-Stock-Delayed-by-NYSE-American.html">delayed</a> in May.&nbsp;



Exodus CEO JP Richardson <a href="https://x.com/jprichardson/status/1788655686789824901">wasn’t too happy</a> about the delay, saying in a statement the company was “surprised and confused by this last-minute decision,” given it had been “fully transparent and responsive “ with the SEC throughout the process.



Elliot Chun, a partner at advisory firm Architect Partners, <a href="https://architectpartners.com/crypto-public-companies-snapshot-146/">blamed</a> the SEC’s “no framework and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-crypto-anti-innovation-crusade">attack every</a> crypto company enforcement strategy.”&nbsp;



An SEC spokesperson said the agency does not comment on individual companies.



Richardson supported Donald Trump, <a href="https://x.com/jprichardson/status/1833680638169551089">noting on X</a> how he shared Exodus’s story with the now president-elect. Veronica McGregor, the firm’s legal chief <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kamala-harris-crypto-policy-reset-outlook">I spoke with</a> in August, was involved in the Crypto4Harris group’s efforts.



McGregor told me after the election she looked forward to working with the new administration, adding “there is zero reason for crypto to be a partisan issue.”



While legislation could take a while to accomplish, she noted, changing the leadership and focus of regulators can (and should) be done more quickly.



“Our top priority is making sure there is a dramatic shift in attitude and approach by regulators such as the SEC,” she added. “The ongoing theme of trying to cram new technology and business models into ancient legal and regulatory frameworks is not merely unproductive, it is also especially detrimental to business and innovation.”



On the public listing, Exodus just submitted a response to the SEC’s latest comment letter and is awaiting next steps, a spokesperson told me.



Even with Trump <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">set to be president</a>, SEC reforms won’t happen overnight, Richardson acknowledged.&nbsp;



He noted: “I’d expect his administration to start laying the groundwork within the first year, bringing in the right experts and setting a regulatory foundation that aligns with his campaign promises.”



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A post-election check-in on a crypto firm still trying to go public

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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It’s been nearly a week since Donald Trump became the president-elect (again), and he’s been busy teasing his picks for top cabinet positions.&nbsp;



While the administration&#8217;s so-called “border czar” position is dominating the headlines, sources say Trump is still planning on hiring a “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">crypto czar</a>.” But establishing a digital assets-related task force is on the back burner, at least for now. Trump is, as expected, starting with the highest-level positions first, and he has some help.&nbsp;



Co-chairing Trump’s transition team — to help fill the roughly 4,000 positions that will make up the administration — is Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick. One of Cantor’s notable clients is stablecoin issuer Tether, which is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/federal-investigators-probe-cryptocurrency-firm-tether-a13804e5">rumored</a> to be the subject of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tether-denies-government-investigation">federal investigation</a>.&nbsp;



Trump, Lutnick and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been a cozy trio throughout the campaign, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/us/politics/howard-lutnick-transition-ethics.html">raising questions</a> about how the billionaires could be serving their own business interests.&nbsp;



Trump in September said Musk had agreed to head a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-economic-new-york-club-comments">new task force</a> should he reclaim the White House. The “government efficiency commission” will conduct “a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and make recommendations for drastic reforms,” Trump said during a campaign stop at the Economic Club of New York.&nbsp;



Susie Wiles, who co-ran Trump’s campaign since 2022, is set to be the first woman to serve as White House chief of staff.&nbsp;



Wiles reportedly tipped off big Republican donors that Trump plans to immediately reinstate executive orders from his first term, according to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/us/politics/trump-executive-orders-susie-wiles.html">New York Times</a>. While specifics weren’t given, some of Trump’s 2016-era orders include withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization (both of which former President Joe Biden promptly reversed).&nbsp;



If all goes according to plan, Trump’s national security adviser will be Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, who has mirrored Trump’s views on withdrawing support to Ukraine. The title of border czar will be given to Tom Homan, former director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Homan’s RNC speech this year focused on mass deportation, a key pillar of Trump’s campaign.&nbsp;



Crypto-friendly former presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy is out for Secretary of State and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-taps-us-senator-marco-rubio-secretary-state-2024-11-12/?utm_source=Sailthru&amp;utm_medium=Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&amp;utm_term=111224&amp;user_email=fa79e40e809c025fd4827946d76a7c6be663b35e69ebda4628a3ff9f08f02c28&amp;lctg=6217b5e4e61dc90bfd6de99d">Marco Rubio is in</a> (pending Senate approval, of course), according to people familiar with the matter. But Ramaswamy is a front runner to replace Vice President-elect JD Vance’s newly vacant Senate seat, I’ve heard.&nbsp;



Positions still up for grabs include Secretary of the Treasury (investor John Paulson backed out this morning) and Defense Secretary (Fox is <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-names-contention-defense-secretary-under-trump">reporting</a> that old Trump allies Robert Wilkie and Robert O’Brien may be on the short list).&nbsp;



And, of course, there’s the SEC. As we’ve covered before, Trump’s promise to “fire Gary Gensler on day one” may not be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-gary-gensler-sec-post-election-outlook">legally sound</a>, but he is likely to tap current Commissioner Mark Uyeda as acting chair should Gensler not step down on his own.&nbsp;



Plus, it’s worth remembering that Trump isn’t one to shy away from a court battle, so who knows how this one might turn out.



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Trump is building his cabinet top-down, and crypto is toward the bottom 

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1,359 projects were submitted to Colosseum’s Radar hackathon, a contest for Solana-based programs to win some prize money — and possibly a seed check from Colosseum’s startup accelerator wing. The judges’ decisions were announced this morning.



You can view Colosseum’s hackathons, which are backed by the Solana Foundation and a slew of big names in the blockchain’s ecosystem, as a proxy for what would-be Solana founders are most interested in at the moment. The last Colosseum hackathon was won by ORE, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-solana-ore-v2-review">proof-of-work-like currency</a> on Solana.



This particular hackathon turned up a lot of DeFi builders, one of the hackathon’s organizers said. The grand champion was Reflect, a delta-neutral currency protocol that lets tokens accrue yield without touching the banking system.&nbsp;



Reflect is similar to Ethena, a “synthetic dollar” protocol that raced to billions-worth in market capitalization after launching earlier this year. Underpinning Ethena and Reflect is a version of a cash-and-carry trade which involves buying a spot asset and its corresponding derivative to hedge exposure. The projects are “delta-neutral” because the two positions are offset, and price movements won’t affect assets’ value.



In the crypto version, the derivative is a perpetual futures contract which allows Ethena and Reflect to generate yield from the funding rate, or a fee paid between long and short sellers in a crypto perps market.&nbsp;



Reflect also generates yield by having users deposit liquid staking tokens (LSTs) to mint RDC, which can be thought of as a yield-bearing stablecoin. Solana LSTs generate rewards that are passed on by validators. JitoSOL, the largest <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/jito-releases-code-for-solana-restaking-network">Solana LST</a>, currently generates 8.06% in APY.



Staking yield is the whole ballgame for Reflect. Delta-neutral protocols need to find sources of yield, especially when open interest rates decline, and staking rewards could fill that potential gap. The staking yield rate varies with factors including the total number of stakers and the SOL inflation rate being paid to validators.



Ethena, which is built on Ethereum, recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-ethena-solana-integration">deployed its tokens on Solana</a> as well. However, Reflect sees itself as a more decentralized version of Ethena. The project’s team decided to create Reflect around six months ago after seeing Ethena hit the peak of a deposit frenzy, Reflect’s anonymous co-founder, Nico, told me.&nbsp;



Ethena <a href="https://ethena-labs.gitbook.io/ethena-labs/solution-design/hedging-system/managing-risk-from-dependencies">holds</a> deposits with large custodians such as Copper and Fireblocks, and it makes trades on centralized exchanges like ByBit. Reflect plans to operate fully onchain by trading perpetuals on the Solana DeFi platform Drift, Nico said.&nbsp;



Nico added that the more-centralized way Ethena is run can lead to decisions with big security implications, citing the project’s onboarding of bitcoin collateral as a decision that could leave Ethena “more exposed to changes in funding rate.”



Reflect also plans to integrate with Solana restaking platforms Jito and Solayer for a restaked insurance fund that could offload some protocol risk in exchange for some of the protocol’s revenue.&nbsp;



Reflect wasn’t the only innovative Radar DeFi submission. Colosseum co-founder Matty Taylor told me DeFi was the most competitive track, and the team believes a few of the startups to come from Radar will be “major catalysts” in expanding stablecoin and blockchain usage.



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Solana-based answer to Ethena wins ‘Radar’ hackathon

Ethereum researcher Justin Drake introduced a proposal to overhaul Ethereum’s consensus layer, called the &#8220;Beam Chain.&#8221; This redesign, pitched to a packed house at Devcon Bangkok today, aims to modernize a part of Ethereum&#8217;s core infrastructure while maintaining compatibility and decentralization.



“I want to take what may sound like a totally crazy idea and convince you that it might not be so crazy,” he said.&nbsp;



The idea is to accelerate parts of the Ethereum roadmap to take advantage of cryptographic advancements, address inefficiencies and clear out existing technical debt incurred since the 5-year-old design of the <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/glossary/#beacon-chain">Beacon Chain</a>, Ethereum&#8217;s current consensus layer.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From Beacon to Beam</h2>



The Beacon Chain officially launched on Dec. 1, 2020, marking the beginning of Ethereum&#8217;s transition to a <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/proof-of-stake">proof-of-stake</a> (PoS) consensus mechanism and kicking off what was known as Ethereum 2.0. The Beacon Chain operated separately from the Ethereum mainnet <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum-merge">until the Merge</a>, which unified them under the PoS consensus in September 2022.



Blockchain technology evolves rapidly and researchers now have a clearer understanding of complex elements like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-mev-trusted-execution-environments">Maximum Extractable Value</a> (MEV). Advances in cryptographic tools, especially SNARKs (succinct non-interactive arguments of knowledge) and zk-VMs (zero-knowledge virtual machines), offer Ethereum new methods to achieve decentralization and security with greater efficiency.



Beam Chain’s proposal includes improvements in three main areas. First, it tackles block production by decentralizing the builder and relay levels, enhancing censorship resistance, and introducing faster slot times — four-second blocks with faster finality — while still accommodating a wider range of validators, including home stakers.



“The truth is that five years ago our mindset was ‘security first’&#8230;performance was not really a main consideration,” Drake told the audience. “With the benefit of hindsight, we found that there are designs that preserve all the security that we want and at the same time take some of the low-hanging fruit that is available to us to prove performance.”



Second, the proposal reimagines Ethereum’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/staking">staking</a> structure by lowering the minimum required ETH to become a validator. This reduction from 32 ETH to just 1 ETH potentially makes staking accessible to a larger audience.



Finally, Beam would incorporate SNARK-based, post-quantum cryptography using hash-based signatures that enable real-time consensus proof on standard hardware. This approach ensures that <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a> remains resilient even as quantum computing capabilities develop.



Drake highlighted an important nuance — the off-chain nature of the proposed “SNARKification” within the Beam Chain. This design choice ensures flexibility, allowing validators to select their preferred zkVM implementations, whether based on RISC-V or other architectures.



That should not threaten alternative VMs such as StarkWare’s Cairo and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/zksync">ZKsync’s</a> custom zkVM.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/starkware-polygon-labs-stwo-zk-prover">A STARK breakthrough: Next-gen provers may be at least 100x faster</a>



This approach fosters a modular environment, keeping the zkVM choice adaptable and decoupling proof generation from the main Ethereum chain. Off-chain SNARK-ification also ensures that if one zkVM implementation encounters a bug or performance bottleneck, it can be updated independently without requiring onchain adjustments. As a result, alternative zkVMs can integrate seamlessly, preserving Ethereum’s compatibility with various zero-knowledge technology approaches and avoiding any lock-in to a single standard.



Drake emphasized that the Beam Chain proposal would be a “quantum leap” forward for Ethereum, consolidating essential upgrades into a single, holistic change to prepare Ethereum’s consensus layer to move into an ossified “maintenance mode.”



But he specifically avoids referring to his plan as “Ethereum 3.0” since the Beam Chain addresses only the consensus layer without altering the data layer — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-improvement-proposal-4844">blob channels</a> — or the Ethereum Virtual Machine (<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/evm">EVM</a>).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A long road to change, or the right call?</h2>



Drake’s roadmap suggests that research and initial development would begin in 2025, followed by the development of production-grade code in 2026 and comprehensive testing throughout 2027 and 2028.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeQXS_dC6RAcjM22fri6XQedTXnWEVo_e7yb1-DwYf1Feq5AbYRP18ZMrOyTrpxoOigIIJYjKm71fNBTQqbYujGomiHulY5oS-t-XLqSLNiEDQQHVhLczMtzcbQ7FmR6j6moDIX?key=SfK5PPEYPbMgK74XIGmqCvTl" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/rGE_RDumZGg">Ethereum Foundation</a></figcaption></figure>



That timeline has raised eyebrows and provoked groans from the non-dev cognoscenti.



Critics like <a href="https://x.com/MaxResnick1/status/1856287518062457296">Max Resnick</a> and <a href="https://x.com/jon_charb/status/1856297632143913369">Jon Charbonneau</a> suggest that more immediate, radical scalability solutions are needed given Ethereum’s current competitive environment.



Some of the key components on the agenda, such as improvements to consensus and state management, are based on research proposals that may take years to implement fully, pushing tangible benefits well into the future. They may only bring marginal improvements to the status quo in the near term.



That’s not fast enough for a chorus of observers <a href="https://x.com/sachastleger/status/1856315267355467859">calling for</a> more rapid enhancements to Ethereum’s speed. Members of the broader Ethereum community, such as Gnosis co-founder Martin Koeppelmann, who <a href="https://x.com/koeppelmann/status/1856280673486811335">pooh-poohed</a> the plan as “a big refactoring” effort, worry the Ethereum Foundation is lacking urgency.



Taproot Wizards’ self-proclaimed “troll-demon” Eric Wall <a href="https://x.com/ercwl/status/1856323893985980936">responded</a> with a single word: “No.”



But, Beam Chain&#8217;s five-year timeline reflects the complexities of making major changes to the world’s second-largest blockchain, <a href="https://x.com/0xCygaar/status/1856363135633863043">argues</a> Ethereum developer Cygaar on X. With $60 billion in TVL and $400 billion in assets on the line, it pays to be conservative.



Unlike companies or other centralized systems, Ethereum&#8217;s decentralization demands extensive social consensus, meticulous specification, backwards compatibility and rigorous testing to avoid catastrophic vulnerabilities, especially for transformative updates like those proposed today.



Justin Drake welcomed the new consensus design as an opportunity to onboard new client teams from underrepresented regions like India and South America, signaling Ethereum’s commitment to decentralization through a global, diverse technical team.



While still in the proposal stage and thus likely to change, Beam represents a vision for Ethereum’s future — one that embraces zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography for a faster, more secure and decentralized ecosystem.



The big question is, can it come soon enough to satisfy the market?



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Rethinking Ethereum consensus with Beam Chain

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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The Off the Grid hype is still going strong, and anecdotally, I have to say that even my non-crypto husband has been playing it.



Anyway, on Empire today, Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos sat down with <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/6558f55c-a09f-11ef-aae9-2b3740fcea67">Gunzilla’s Theodore Agranat</a>.&nbsp;



Some of Agranat’s answers really help explain the popularity of Off the Grid —&nbsp;specifically, that’s it’s not necessarily about crypto.



Instead, “it is about best of breed technologies. In this case, blockchain technologies that will enhance the user experience. It&#8217;s all about the gamer and it&#8217;s all about the gamer experience.”



The team also had to innovate in order to incorporate the crypto elements.&nbsp;



“To build up the marketplace, but we had to build our own blockchain because we didn&#8217;t find anything out there that really was up to the standards that we had … we ended up going with an Avalanche subnet that we highly customized, that we built on top of,” Agranat explained.



One of the things helping to differentiate Off the Grid is the use of a storyline. In a battle royale game like Fortnite, storylines aren’t always incorporated, but — putting aside the crypto of it all— perhaps that’s also what speaks to players.&nbsp;



Admittedly, I’m not a PC player and I stick to my consoles, so I haven’t picked up the keyboard to test it out, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-nfts-comeback-gaming">unlike David</a>. However, I am a sucker for a good storyline and that would be enough to get me into a battle royale game, which isn’t normally my cup of tea.&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/a16z-monthly-active-addresses-aths">Remember the a16z State of Crypto report</a> from last month? I went back in and looked for gaming-related data to see if the data backs up a potential boom or if Off the Grid is alone on its own island, kind of like its in-game characters.&nbsp;



Hot crypto subcategories — i.e. where everyone’s building this year — remain pretty focused: we have DeFi, blockchain infrastructure and socials at the top of the list. Gaming is a much smaller piece of that pie at 6.3%.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdpGNMEjHrnEFcefpP3KW11FoVc4ujE9Du52ejRMYJ-yNxQ_KnB_v9KvcOHBuxPFOStUX3Dhj1rxupXCPNfeQQ1D3Duu0azcx7as5c8rr2RjGke5Py0wGGqIO2AgJrgqi3sJsxLXQ?key=ouFvfiYHZb6W41mDkNH6NoaM" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: a16z State of Crypto</figcaption></figure>



To be fair, creating a AAA game takes time, and a decent amount of money. So perhaps we just needed a game like Off the Grid to prove the interest before we saw some pickup.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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Off the Grid’s popularity is about ‘best of breed technologies’ 

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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No more questioning it: Bitcoin has never been worth this much against the US dollar.



Bitcoin set a bunch of new price records overnight, with the latest — $89,864 — during the super-early hours of Tuesday morning.



That’s 15% above bitcoin’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-further-from-all-time-high">inflation-adjusted record high</a> from November 2021 ($77,975). Bitcoin has since pulled back to under $87,600 but remains 27% up over the past week.



Bitcoin is now tracking the previous bull market cycle, which spanned from 2018, through the pandemic, to early 2022.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcFdPHqa8bgZwX-pQ2edWGUaQZcNwbBbjMi5FfyRzGI5pVcdwAYPU73QoQgdknXpoarNXjjI2Tt17Jw1b03mdcDOf7GfVq6Sly7L5xBpUiYwR4hkTDkZ-jd10Hb7I_6J-FVITpSCw?key=ouFvfiYHZb6W41mDkNH6NoaM" alt=""/></figure>



The above chart plots bitcoin’s price performance across major bull cycles as if they all started at once. Our current cycle, which began when BTC bottomed out in November 2022, is in purple.



As of earlier this morning, bitcoin was up 580% since then. At this point in the 2021 bull market, bitcoin had gained 570%, and in the one prior between 2015 and 2018, over 2,000%.



All super impressive, considering bitcoin bull market returns were <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-cycle-returns">diminishing every cycle</a>. Until this one, apparently, although it’s early days.



More good news: Tuesday saw another new record for bitcoin beyond its US dollar exchange rate.&nbsp;



BTC’s market cap jumped as much as $181.55 billion throughout the day — the biggest dollar-denominated intraday spike on record.&nbsp;



Previous records were $149.32 billion earlier this year, in August, and $146.04 billion in February 2021.



Of course, the dollar figure record is destined to be broken repeatedly as bitcoin rises. Its market cap has never been higher, over $1.72 trillion, to the point that even a moderate surge in percentage terms would add over a hundred billion dollars.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeTUijgEF9Qq4JNmPRubpR2H2DcKTRydKc-QAwrUkkUUFgvlp4-1z3_k5two4BIJuOivm4nfqnYPzPw_ArvYlIo4bvQc-Ph7h0WSLIALmjkLr4JvoaCinMIJobbzdbY8h910hayew?key=ouFvfiYHZb6W41mDkNH6NoaM" alt=""/></figure>



On the above, the top heatmap shows daily growth in bitcoin’s market cap — redder strips represent more billions added in a single day. Yesterday, at the far right end of the spectrum, was the reddest on record.



The bottom otherwise reflects the percentage gains in bitcoin’s price over the same period. Not so hot, at least compared to the period between 2017 and 2021. But it’s all relative.



Speaking of, there’s one more barrier than bitcoin needs to smash before we can really say that we’re in price discovery mode: Bitcoin’s stock market ratio.



Bitcoin’s price against the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 — the stock market equivalents of the ETH/BTC ratio — is still below records set in late 2021.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXceX8z3eAlU-kRLghx3OgPQY9U787MtZKOr6Pp0v1fb4bNESWDajWgshCk6CDkISeKMRNHBsVZ4RSbYbYZutpQCZ_6A3Gb5tF7vrh3zFnlrYrkIgqiPpNO9b3UqZokwnZxw8GMT?key=ouFvfiYHZb6W41mDkNH6NoaM" alt=""/></figure>



Earlier today, the BTC/SPX ratio (pink line) was 14.99 compared to 15.34 in March 2021. The BTC/NDX ratio (purple) was 4.26, still 11% below the 4.7 peak, also in March 2021. Bitcoin would need to hit around $95,000 to set new highs against either index., at current prices.



It’s a minor point, but it shows just how hot parts of the stock market were in leadup to the current bitcoin euphoria.



Something tells me that crypto will take it from here.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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What needs to happen before bitcoin enters price discovery mode

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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You may be experiencing some déjà vu. But for the Fed, 2024 is very different from 2016.&nbsp;



While our president-elect and his ambitious economic plans (tax cuts, tariffs, stricter immigration policies) are the same today as they were eight years ago, the economy is in a vastly different place. Last week’s election results may have come too late for committee members to consider them in their <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fed-25bps-rate-cut">interest rate decision</a>, but there is still one more meeting before the end of the year.&nbsp;



Back in December 2016 (roughly six weeks after Donald Trump was elected for his first term), the FOMC, as expected, raised interest rates for the first time in a year. What came as more of a surprise was that committee members — including current Fed Chair Jerome Powell — went on to increase the pace of rate hikes for the following year.&nbsp;



“Many participants noted that the effects on the economy of such policy changes, if implemented, would likely be partially offset by tighter financial conditions, including higher longer-term interest rates and a strengthening of the dollar,” according to minutes from the FOMC’s December 2016 meeting.



Inflation is higher than it was in 2016, and the Fed is just at the beginning of its rate-cutting cycle. The labor market is in a precarious position, one that could be disrupted by Trump’s <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ramaswamy-calls-unity-defends-trumps-immigration-plan/story?id=115699213">mass deportation</a> plans. Prices on goods and services are easing, but higher tariffs pose a threat.&nbsp;



We’ll get some Fed speak this week that could shed some light on the central bank’s plans. The next policy-setting meeting is slated for Dec. 17-18.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Fed heads into December meeting with new president-elect, same economic concerns 

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It’s Veterans Day. It’s also now known as the day bitcoin climbed above $86,000 for the first time.&nbsp;



And, oh yeah, that crypto exchange filed for bankruptcy exactly two years ago. FTX, I think it was called. Not to mention US spot bitcoin ETFs <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">launched</a> 10 months ago, today.



First, about bitcoin: Donald Trump’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">crypto-related promises</a> and ultimate election win (along with pro-crypto Congress members) certainly has sparked additional industry euphoria.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Bitwise’s Matt Hougan <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/matt-hougan-crypto-reputational-risk">had said</a> he expects BTC to hit $100,000 by the end of the year and continue upward in 2025. Aside from the expected general crypto regulatory clarity, he and others continue to point out the possibility of BTC becoming a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-as-a-potential-us-reserve-asset">US reserve asset</a> — an idea <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senator-lummis-bitcoin-reserve-bill-crypto-policy">floated by</a> US Sen. Cynthia Lummis.



“I think it makes it a harder market to short because we could wake up at any moment and the US could be establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve or another country could be front-running the US establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve,” Hougan explained. “That was just a wild idea that you couldn’t consider [before].”



There were <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/10/huge-things-coming-bitcoin-explodes-as-secret-nation-state-adoption-mystery-rumors-fuel-a-crypto-price-boom/">rumors</a> that a nation-state snatching up BTC was driving the latest price boost. We did find out that the company best known for hoarding BTC made another big purchase (more on that later).



Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz summed up the crypto market vibes with a screenshot of a Monday research note from financial firm Bernstein:&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Bernstein ($800 billion AUM) just put out their Monday morning note to clients: “Welcome to the Crypto bull market. Buy everything you can. Don’t fight this – add crypto exposure asap.” Stage 3 really is upon us. <a href="https://t.co/ZGLoLvtXJD">pic.twitter.com/ZGLoLvtXJD</a>&mdash; Yano 🟪 (@JasonYanowitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1855976870220550600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“We recommend investors who have so far remained shy of any crypto exposure due to regulatory concerns invert their mental model,” the analysts wrote. “We are in a regulatory tailwind zone now.”



Some have warned of short-term “retrenchments,” or dips, as we know BTC is a volatile asset.



Copper.co research head Fadi Aboualfa also cautioned that securities laws won’t change overnight, and that BTC remains closely tied to broader economic forces.



“Inflation is still elevated, interest rates haven’t eased, and the US dollar remains strong; these forces are not sustainable in tandem,” he wrote in an email. “One will eventually weaken. The real question is: Which one, and why?”&nbsp;



Taking a step back, it’s pretty wild that BTC reaching a new peak comes exactly <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-impacts-on-cryptos-future">two years</a> after FTX filed for bankruptcy. Re-reading a piece I wrote on Nov. 11, 2022 — <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/whats-next-for-ftx-and-its-customers-after-bankruptcy-filing">titled</a> “What’s next for FTX and its customers after bankruptcy filing?” — was a bit surreal.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s price had dropped to as low as about $16,000 that month. That’s less than one-fifth of what it is today.&nbsp;



Sentiment seemed to shift a bit when <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blackrock-files-bitcoin-etf">BlackRock entered the race</a> to launch a spot bitcoin ETF in June 2023. Less than seven months later, the SEC greenlit those products; BTC eclipsed <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-all-time-high">$73,000</a> a couple months after that — a high that would stand until election night last week.



Today is an even 10 months since the US spot BTC ETFs launched. Net flows into those products hit a single-day record of nearly $1.4 billion on Nov. 7. After reeling in another $293 million on Nov. 8, the category’s total inflows now amount to more than $25.8 billion.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Assets in the US spot bitcoin ETFs are now up to $84b, which is 2/3 of the way to what gold ETFs have, all the sudden there&#39;s a decent shot they surpass gold bf their first birthday (we predicted it would take 3-4yrs) <a href="https://t.co/MlPZNhdKjO">pic.twitter.com/MlPZNhdKjO</a>&mdash; Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1856013871116320902?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



These vehicles are poised to play a big role in allowing institutions wanting exposure to bitcoin (particularly in a friendlier environment) to more easily execute that desire.



Then there are the other planned spot crypto ETFs, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/xrp-etf-contingent-on-election-and-sec-appeal">industry watchers noted</a> would have a better chance of gaining approval in the short term with a Trump win and new SEC leadership.



Dare I ask: What could go wrong?



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