Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Permissionless Day 3 concluded yesterday, and we’re back with some highlight quotes. In case you missed it, we also did a recap of Day 2 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0x-permissionless-day-2">here</a>.



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">What role will crypto play in working AI products?</h4>



Haseeb of Dragonfly Capital: “We all know the obvious answers which [are]: engineer, accountant, lawyer, girlfriend, maybe in reverse order.”



Casey Caruso of Topology cited brain models coming within the decade: “The long story short is that we don&#8217;t have enough data on neural activity to train a brain model today and one thing that crypto is really good at is incentivizing people to aggregate data, so I&#8217;m super convinced that there&#8217;s going to be a DePIN network to collect this data, and from there we&#8217;ll have a model that can actually unlock things like mind reading — as crazy as that sounds.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Does this Bitcoin-treasury-strategy thing going on in TradFi actually have legs?</h4>



Thomas Lee CIO of FundStrat Capital is optimistic:



“Oil companies have historically traded on a premium to their proven reserves because of expectation of future reserves. ExxonMobil was in the top five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 for 25 years from 1990-2015. Never valued on earnings but a price premium to its proven reserves.&nbsp;



“[Strategy] will probably become the biggest stock in the US. It doesn&#8217;t make earnings — it’s valued purely on its price to bitcoin reserves.”&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Joe Lubin of Consensys on what motivated their lawsuit against the SEC:</h4>



The SEC “secretly decided to reclassify ether as a security…[and] tried to pin it on essentially people responsible for the Merge — on us as promoters, EIP writers, builders and Danny (Ryan)&#8230;When we saw that researchers were getting subpoenas, that’s when we decided to sue the SEC.”&nbsp;



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Felix Jauvin on the macro factors driving stablecoin hype:</h4>



“We’re going into this world now where fiscal deficits are increasing…The big question at hand is, who is to be the one buying this debt? There’s a very logical reasoning for why we’re seeing such a push for the GENIUS Act right now, because that is a huge unlock for US T-bills coming forth.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Joe Cutler, Partner at Perkins Cole, lamenting the entry of institutions into crypto thus far:</h4>



Crypto was about “democratizing access to the control over value, and that&#8217;s not happening in the institutional rebuild. I worry about that.&nbsp;



“The second thing is, it was also destined to sort of remake the value propositions of aggregation of wealth, money, power and control into a more balanced system than it was before, and I don&#8217;t see that happening either in the march towards institutional adoption…&nbsp;



“I just hope that we get out the map once in a while and remind ourselves what country we&#8217;re in, not what road.”



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Is <a href="https://www.jpmorgan.com/kinexys/content-hub/deposit-tokens">JPMD</a> a permissioned coin on a permissionless network?</h4>



Suresh Shetty CTO of Kinexys by JPMorgan: “I’d say JPMD is a deposit token that is going to connect to public chains of which its primary use cases are cross border payments and settlement of securities.”



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Recapping Day 3 of Permissionless IV

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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If you want to build in Web3, you&#8217;ve pretty much always needed to know how to code. Not necessarily at an elite level, but at least a baseline understanding. That plus lots of late nights, semicolon-heavy syntax, compiler errors, and a burly stack of ever-open documentation tabs.



The technical barrier was part of the “chewing glass” culture.



Gatekeeping, maybe, but also a necessary filter in an ecosystem where one misplaced line in a smart contract could drain a treasury.&nbsp;



That filter is eroding fast these days, however.



Brace yourselves, friends. We&#8217;ve now entered the era of vibe coding. The term, coined by computer scientist Andrej Karpathy, refers to a novel AI-native coding style where developers (and perhaps more importantly, non-developers) describe what they want and, at the click of a button, an LLM generates a working iteration of their request.



Tools like Cursor, Dev.fun and Poof.new are already lowering the floor, turning ideas into dApps with a few lines of stumbling prose. A Poof co-founder told Lightspeed that vibe coders have created over 2,000 apps on the platform since its open beta started on Thursday.



But, of course, there&#8217;s a dark side to every moon. Because if it&#8217;s easier than ever to build something legitimate, it&#8217;s also easier than ever to build something that only has the appearance of legitimacy.



The ICO boom of 2017 gave us a glimpse of this dynamic. Once the profit motive was clear, hundreds of anonymous teams emerged from the woodwork to spin up faux white papers and (usually crap) landing pages. They promised revolutionary tech, launched tokens, raised millions&#8230;and vanished into vapor.



Now imagine that, but times infinity. 



Imagine some clown throwing up an LLM-generated codebase, a slick AI-generated branding package, wholly-believable GitHub activity, a world-class website UI with Web3 login, and then getting his fake chatbot founders to do some live AMAs.



Honeypot contracts with backdoors phishing sites that buoy authentic functionality as an indicator of legitimacy…Mint buttons that seed approvals you don&#8217;t notice ‘til your wallet is drained…The potential for bad actors runs deep.



Once things really get going, reputation systems and persistent identities will likely be the only hope we have of ever trusting another product. Proof-of-humanity systems, social graphs and third-party attestations will form the backbone of trust in an AI-coded world in Web3 and beyond.



We&#8217;ll need open auditing tools built for non-coders, and sandbox environments that simulate contract behavior before anything hits mainnet. Smart contract registries could begin to mirror app store models, with verified publishers, community ratings, and AI-generated trust scores.



The responsibility won&#8217;t just fall on users — it&#8217;ll sit with platforms, protocols, and indeed, the vibe coders themselves.



But even with those risks, even with the inevitable rough edges, something big is happening here. We&#8217;ve spent years saying Web3 is about empowering creators. Now it actually can be. Not just for the technically-minded or the crypto-native.



The poet, the game designer, the high school kid with a better idea for an auction format or voting platform — they can actually build. And if we establish proper protection early enough, the best ideas may finally have a chance to win. Not because they raise the most capital but because they exist — functional, forkable, live.



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The rise of vibe coding on Solana

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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The following is the third and final part of a multi-part series on the state of crypto liquid markets, based on several conversations with liquid funds. You can find part <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-liquid-funds-bitcoin-target-this-cycle">one</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-liquid-funds-fundamentals">two</a> here.



Which crypto sectors are the most reviled by the average person in the industry? Anecdotally, gaming and crypto x AI projects seem to make the easiest punching bags. If I had a dollar for every time I heard “crypto games aren’t fun…”



The liquid funds I spoke to, however, had much more lukewarm and varied feedback. Though some were uninterested in gaming, others expressed optimism.



“The Web3 gaming space is very challenged at the moment and is most overlooked or under-owned,” Spartan co-founder Kelvin Koh told me.&nbsp;



“We need a big hit game for people to pay attention to Web3 gaming again. Off the Grid, Maplestory Universe and FIFA Rivals are three games we are watching closely.”



Off the Grid in particular has continued to average about <a href="https://flipsidecrypto.xyz/yasmin/gunzilla-network-metrics-explorer-kbgQ38">552k</a> daily players after its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/off-the-grid-blockchain-gaming-experience">big bang launch</a>. Its active player base has cemented the GUNZ chain as a top 10 chain based on active addresses and transaction count, according to <a href="https://x.com/pierskicks/status/1906626745794519419">Delphi Ventures</a>, an investor in the game.



1kx was another fund that <a href="https://x.com/pet3rpan_/status/1887140527310864481">expressed</a> greater optimism for Web3 gaming.



Traditional free-to-play mobile games have an incredibly high entry barrier and require millions to breakeven. But a Web3 game that leverages the power of token incentives can greatly reduce that barrier of user acquisition, 1kx partner Peter Pan told me.



“A game like Pixels raised $4 million in their first year and was able to go to market within 18 months. They spent $70 million in token incentives on user acquisition and made about $25 million back — that’s roughly a 30% return on spend that would never be possible for a Web2 startup managing the same budget.”



Despite the early days of crypto x AI, a few funds also expressed hopefulness for the sector. At the very least, most acknowledged that in the long run, blockchain would enable AI in some specific use cases.



For instance, one crucial way that blockchain tech can support AI is in the area of “identity,” Pantera’s Cosmo Jiang said.



&#8220;Infinite agents and bots will exist thanks to AI. So there will always be a demand to know what is truly human. What better way to create a global, permissionless, censorship-resistant identity solution than using a blockchain? World [formerly known as Worldcoin] is doing something critical here.”



When it came to more mature token sectors within DeFi (DEX, lending liquid staking), there was general agreement among the funds I spoke to that these were markets with proven PMF and ways to perform valuations.



This however also crucially means that token valuations in DeFi were increasingly tethered to financial reality and less susceptible to speculative valuations than, say, memecoins, as one investor told me.



This is in stark contrast to L1/L2 tokens, which saw more disagreement on how they should be valued.



The valuations of most existing L1 tokens (on a P/E ratio basis) were far beyond what a fundamental analysis would explain, and poised for a harsh correction to the downside, one investor told me.



Another believed that L1 tokens were still erroneously being valued as a comps to bitcoin, which has become more of a store of value.



Here’s what Blockworks head of research Ryan Connor had to say on L1 valuations:



“The reason, all else equal, for the higher valuations for L1 and L1-like things is because they are platforms, and platforms can be money-making machines. So all else equal, theoretically, you&#8217;re pricing in higher growth. Solana, for example, can 5x its revenue in the next 12 months to above 10b. That&#8217;s incredible earning power. You can&#8217;t say the same for AAVE.”



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Liquid funds remain optimistic about Web3 gaming and blockchain uses for AI

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Thanks to the early signs of a trade deal with China and a better-than-expected <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/inflation-april-rose-less-tariff-impact">April CPI print</a>, Big Tech (and just about everything else) is up this week.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500 North American tech sector index is up 8.4% over the past five trading days. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 6.3% in that time.&nbsp;



Even Microsoft and Nvidia — despite their respective headwinds (which we’ll get into later) — are in the green. They’re up 3% and 13%, respectively, in the past five days.&nbsp;



The way I see it, there are two main forces poised to significantly impact Big Tech: tariffs and AI. These two forces just so happen to be intertwined.&nbsp;



In an overgeneralized nutshell, higher tariffs mean many Big Tech companies may have to raise prices. While most consumer electronics are currently exempt from tariffs, Trump insists the relief is temporary.&nbsp;



On the AI side, tariff-fueled <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tariff-supply-chain-effects-summer">supply chain disruptions</a> for semiconductors and other infrastructure also make investing in AI more expensive. Still, the biggest names in the space say they’re forging ahead with massive AI budgets.&nbsp;



Alphabet plans to spend $75 billion on AI and data center infrastructure, marking a 43% increase from 2024. Meta similarly upped its AI budget by 44% — bringing its 2025 target range between $60 billion and $65 billion.&nbsp;



Microsoft, which revealed on Tuesday it would cut ~3% of its global workforce, said it will have spent $80 billion on AI expansion by June (when the company’s fiscal year ends).&nbsp;



Grain of salt here. If tariffs make the tools to build out AI operations more expensive, of course the budgets will have to increase. But the budgets are growing by a lot. This signals companies are still on the offensive and see scaling AI models as an essential part of their businesses, even though this now costs much more.&nbsp;



Nvidia shares have gained more than 10% since Monday’s open, on news that the US and China had reached a temporary truce in the trade war. The chipmaker’s market cap is back above $3 trillion for the first time since February, even as its AI server maker, Foxconn, <a href="https://www.foxconn.com/en-us/press-center/press-releases/latest-news/1595">downgraded</a> its 2025 outlook.&nbsp;



A prominent theory in recent years has been that AI will improve productivity, and a new <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/may/industry-level-growth-ai-use-us-postpandemic-recovery">report</a> published by the St. Louis Fed yesterday backs this up.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXesxtiaEEbxAw5-yYJXc6LKLo3Dxx20dphVOAQd2iszJVWxGczZL3cO9ZBimoozh3EKIURqWaAjNYKsZKoPqPa-5I4A6-rSWyzCOGG9_JQTvQtlP7j3W29AjT2223zmBOf0CeyZQQ?key=hXsPwiTivyY4kmJktT1tYg" alt=""/></figure>



See “Information” on that chart? That’s technology, and according to the St. Louis Fed, the industry has become about 5% more productive each year between 2019 and 2024.&nbsp;



But what about the labor force? Isn’t AI coming for jobs? Yes and no. General consensus seems to be that AI will both create and destroy jobs. For now, I’d argue the biggest impact the Big Tech push into AI has had on the labor market isn’t that humans are being replaced by machines. It’s that their salaries are being redirected to fund those machines.&nbsp;



The St. Louis Fed’s report notes that manufacturing jobs now make up a smaller share of overall employment, but productivity has increased. Economic growth happens when either more people are employed or when productivity increases. In a perfect world, we get both.&nbsp;



Also, in a perfect world, ChatGPT doesn’t come for this journalist’s job. Here’s hoping.



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