Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Friday’s the deadline for most countries to negotiate new trade agreements with the US.



President Trump on Sunday reached a deal with the European Union that would establish a 15% levy on imports to the US. It’s less than the original rate proposed on Liberation Day (20%) and half of what Trump threatened the EU with earlier this month (30%).&nbsp;



The rate is higher than the 10% baseline most imports to the US have had since the spring, when the White House first said it would delay higher rates.&nbsp;



Additionally, the EU will purchase $750 billion in US energy and invest $600 billion in the US by 2028, the White House added in a Monday statement. The feasibility of the investment, however, is being <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-600bn-us-investment-will-come-exclusively-from-private-sector/">questioned</a>.&nbsp;



Investor reaction to the deal was subdued, but still positive. Futures moved higher on Sunday night, and the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading in the green for the first half of Monday’s session. Both had dipped lower by 2 p.m. ET.&nbsp;



Economists largely agree that the deal is a good thing — or, at the very least, it’s better than nothing. An all-out trade war between the US and EU would have been a true worst-case scenario, so the agreement brings a sense of relief to both sides. That said, the details are not exactly being universally celebrated. Plus, the details are still a bit murky.



Some “strategic products” are exempt from the 15% tax (i.e. aircrafts, select chemicals and agricultural products and other raw materials). What’s currently not exempt? Luxury goods. LVMH shares were trading 2% lower at the time of writing.



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Monday that more items could be added to the exemption list should negotiations continue.&nbsp;



The White House called the agreement a &#8220;colossal deal” that helps “liberate America from unfair trade practices.” Other countries involved are less enthused. Just ask French Prime Minister François Bayrou.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcKLFLoA8yv-8XGjgSoKk4KI-4dOASWvmut2o963PN2ctez3hU0hI0u3_6h0Nr-V6KfrzBPJ7bIAab44r-FSJjHB-qTT_ZiIyq91u3rfAM-vxJHVHlnFVfiR9w-zdp_UfngCI1f?key=ht3xDkP_szEI-Tjka4S--w" alt=""/></figure>



It’s a busy day for the president, and not just because of tariffs. He’s currently in Scotland meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.&nbsp;



The two are discussing trade and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, per the White House. Trump told reporters Monday morning that the US will offer aid to Gaza, saying there is “real starvation” in the region.&nbsp;



And let’s not forget about China. Officials have a little longer to ink a deal, but not much. Higher tariffs on both Chinese and American goods will go into effect on Aug. 12.&nbsp;



Chinese and American officials are meeting in Sweden today to discuss how to proceed. More on that (and future trade developments) later this week.&nbsp;



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US inks trade deal with EU days before deadline

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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With days to go before the new trade policy deadline takes effect, the US struck a deal with Japan.



President Trump announced the deal — a 15% tariff rate on Japanese exports to the US — late last night via a Truth Social post. The rate is lower than the previously proposed 25% levy and also applies to cars and auto parts.&nbsp;



A <a href="https://x.com/Scavino47/status/1947838342285996172">photo</a> shared on X by Dan Scavino, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, suggests officials were making changes to the policy up until the last minute. The document in the picture had been edited by hand, with $400 billion crossed out and replaced with “500.”&nbsp;



The new figure appears in-line with the message both sides are touting: The agreement includes $550 billion in investments and loans from Japan to the US. Trump added in his Tuesday post that the deal will result in hundreds of thousands of jobs.&nbsp;



Domestic auto manufacturers may not be as happy with the deal, though.&nbsp;



With Japan auto exports now taxed at 15%, it’s more expensive for US makers like Ford and GM to import vehicles and parts from countries such as Mexico (25% levy) than it is for Japanese automakers to send vehicles to the US. Check out <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/automakers-impact-tariffs-july-2025">yesterday</a>’s edition for a recap on how tariffs are already hitting car makers’ bottom lines. 



The White House has not yet commented specifically on how the new Japanese deal will impact cars, nor has it shared any information about the status of other negotiations. We’ll be listening, though.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



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Japan, US strike trade deal that leaves US car makers out

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Adoption does not follow a straight line.



At least, not at the local level. But definitely, if you <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ict-adoption">amalgamate</a> the world’s adoption rate for mobile phone subscriptions and the internet, the line will indeed go straight up.&nbsp;



Zoom into individual countries, though, and you’ll soon see that the road to widespread usage can be rocky — but the result is still the same.



Greece in July 2015 was in the midst of an all-out banking crisis.



The European Central Bank had declined to further prop up Greek banks with emergency debt. By this point, Greece was only just <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/greece-meets-imf-payment-deadline/a-18371436">scraping</a> together repayments for a 1.6 billion euro ($1.9 billion) loan from the IMF which had fallen into arrears at the end of June.



Greece’s government scrambled to secure alternative financing but failed. Having judged the terms of the ECB’s deal as politically <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31055069">toxic</a>, the then-prime minister instead called a snap referendum over whether to accept.



Initial deal <a href="https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/draft16h.pdf">terms</a> ranged from indefinite austerity to further cuts to pensions to forced pre-approval of domestic laws to the placing of 50 billion euro ($58.5 billion) in national assets into a fund supervised by EU representatives.



Greeks <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/third-greek-atms-empty-saturday-tsipras-declares-referendum">rushed</a> to ATMs to withdraw cash as soon as the referendum was called, resulting in an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33305019">emergency</a> bank holiday and capital controls. Withdrawals were restricted to just 60 euros ($70) per day, international transfers were mostly barred and the local stock exchange was closed.



Three days later, Greece became the first developed country to ever default on an IMF loan obligation. This effectively isolated Greece financially until votes were counted.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Greece almost left the euro at 6am this morning <a href="http://t.co/xDCYXouFaZ">http://t.co/xDCYXouFaZ</a> <a href="http://t.co/BiQsArYs1d">pic.twitter.com/BiQsArYs1d</a>&mdash; Matt O&#39;Brien (@ObsoleteDogma) <a href="https://twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/620565071039627264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 13, 2015</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Citizens <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/05/greek-referendum-no-vote-signals-huge-challenge-to-eurozone-leaders">voted</a> against the deal (61.3%), plunging the Eurozone into another two weeks of deliberations, which almost resulted in Greece leaving the eurozone altogether, as shown above. The government eventually approved austerity measures later in July. The situation would continue to play out for the rest of the year.



When we talk of Bitcoin’s true value proposition — the one underneath the price talk and financial tinkering — it’s hard to find one better than this precise example: Banks and the stock market have effectively locked you out of your value, and even when they can access it, you can only ever get less than $100 cash at a time.



Bitcoin obviously fixes this. If Satoshi had launched Bitcoin in 2015 instead of 2009, perhaps they would’ve buried a headline about the Greek debt crisis in the genesis block instead of one about the UK.



And certainly, people in Greece did turn to Bitcoin. One exchange <a href="https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/198934/fearing-return-to-drachma-some-greeks-use-bitcoin-to-dodge-capital-controls/#:~:text=New%20customers%20depositing%20at%20least,quadrupled%20to%20around%20700%20euros">reported</a> thousands of new users and locals shared tips on how to buy bitcoin on Reddit and the Greek-language <a href="https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-in-greece#:~:text=Nevertheless%2C%20signs%20of%20Bitcoin%20adoption,lately%2C%20coinciding%20with%20recent%20events">version</a> of Bitcointalk.&nbsp;



Their efforts were frustratingly hamstrung by capital controls — banks blocked most transfers, including potential deposits to crypto exchanges for buying bitcoin.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Nothing like capital controls to focus the mind! First Bitcoin Meetup in Greece <a href="https://t.co/fFiYKxpFtR">https://t.co/fFiYKxpFtR</a> v/<a href="https://twitter.com/RedditBTC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RedditBTC</a> <a href="http://t.co/ly3aRQJfnX">pic.twitter.com/ly3aRQJfnX</a>&mdash; Jon Matonis (@jonmatonis) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmatonis/status/621346504280829952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 15, 2015</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“If Greeks already have cash in hand, bitcoin is unnecessary. If they don’t, then bitcoin is unattainable. It’s a bank liquidity crisis,” Andreas Antonopoulos <a href="https://x.com/aantonop/status/615571506630905856">tweeted</a> as local banks were closing.



Still, the price of bitcoin did rise somewhat during the ordeal, but it would only really start to take off toward the end of the year, when the worst of it was over.



The Greek debt crisis showed the world what happens when the fiat system fails a population. But when push comes to shove, it’s clear that Bitcoin as a safety net works best when you’ve planned ahead.



After all, it’s tough to build a doomsday bunker on the day after doomsday.



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What the Greek debt crisis taught us about Bitcoin, 10 years on

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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During Robinhood’s big <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/robinhood-l2-staking-us">crypto announcements</a> in France this week, including an Arbitrum L2 chain of its own, the consumer trading app also <a href="https://www.ogcnice.com/en/article/128901/ogc-nice-and-robinhood-announce-multi-year-front-of-shirt-partnership.html">unveiled</a> a multiyear sponsorship with French soccer team OGC Nice that kicks off in the 2025/2026 season.&nbsp;



The Robinhood logo will appear across the front of team shirts, plus training and warm-up kits. Expect branded content and digital collabs, as well.&nbsp;



Robinhood will also be part of a dedicated web series with OGC Nice about financial accessibility, according to a message from a spokesperson.



“France is fast cementing its position as a global fintech hub — and it plays an important role in our international footprint,” said Robinhood Crypto SVP and GM Johann Kerbrat in a statement.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">L&#39;OGC Nice et <a href="https://twitter.com/RobinhoodApp?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RobinhoodApp</a> annoncent un partenariat pluriannuel de sponsoring pour la face avant du maillot ⤵︎&mdash; OGC Nice (@ogcnice) <a href="https://twitter.com/ogcnice/status/1939937014314607057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“This partnership represents a personal and meaningful moment for me as a lifelong football fan who studied and began my career in Nice, but it also demonstrates our commitment to growing our presence as Robinhood expands across the EU. It presents an opportunity to connect with a passionate fan base and introduce new audiences to a cutting-edge suite of financial products,” Kerbrat said.



Robinhood made some big announcements for EU customers this week including over 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs, plus perpetual futures. Prospective perp traders will have to fill out an application to be approved, though.



The duration and financial terms of Robinhood’s deal with the Ligue 1 soccer team haven’t been publicly disclosed.



The soccer and sports worlds more broadly aren’t strangers to crypto partnerships, of course. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fc-barcelona-nft-wallet-barca">FC Barcelona unveiled</a> an NFT avatar and crypto wallet play last month, for instance.&nbsp;



Robinhood has sponsored a few NBA teams in the past including the Washington Wizards, Memphis Grizzlies, and Miami Heat. This year, it sponsored NASCAR team 23XI.&nbsp;&nbsp;



But I still wouldn’t say crypto sports deals are booming — though maybe it’s unfair to compare the landscape to the frothiness of a few years ago.



The last time we really saw tons of them was when <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/12/13/Technology/ftx-timeline-collapse-sam-bankman-fried-cryptocurrency-sports-sponsorships/">FTX sponsored</a> TSM esports, the MLB, two stadiums, Mercedes’ F1 team, the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, and others (which felt like a bit much, even at the time). Around that time in 2021, Crypto dot com reportedly paid $700 million to sponsor an LA-based stadium that’s now the Crypto dot com Arena.&nbsp;



Coinbase, arguably Robinhood’s biggest crypto competitor, has continued to sponsor NBA basketball. It also announced an esports <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-sponsor-riot-games-league-of-legends-esports">partnership with Riot Games</a> earlier this year.



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Robinhood sponsors French soccer team OGC Nice

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We’re kicking off this week with a collection of charts around political markets on Polymarket, Maple’s unstoppable SyrupUSDC growth, and an ambitious Celestia proposal to leave proof-of-stake behind.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Polymarket political markets</h2>



Polymarket is back in the limelight amid recent geopolitical conflicts.



In the last week, markets in the “Politics” category saw a jump from $3.9 million to $19.5 million in volumes, as denoted by the light blue bars in the chart below.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc7hUObP8pVy4XKuQ58DPZVGrHGak8rhCt8v4aJbESeWy1ZQbuUOs4sbrb2FYKWggkDpthx_SlAP5mWnRfzly6ZwKn_SuQT_Cy7_J43tKo6nP2JCAWMz03oVChiBY4ORL56tYOy?key=cRSo9z7KKeL8tZciBY-DLw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/polymarket?dashboard=53">Polymarket</a>.</figcaption></figure>



All eyes were focused on the “US military action against Iran before July?” market, which <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?tid=1750273470067&amp;utm_source=hs_email&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=367725286&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8TeV1lleAcBdX0r-vOK9uiPIEv5Nbrs65tK4kFmpL4j8SICyG1mHZ5ThEudBWgPAtIcq25zZeOdR1gHD7q0PLJeWtOTg">contract</a> resolved yesterday following reports of US strikes on alleged Iran nuclear facilities. The market saw a total $29.9 million in trading volumes.



Just before the market surged to 99%+ near certainty, “Yes” shares on the market had been trading at $0.59, meaning markets were pricing in about a 59% probability of the US taking military action against Iran.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Celestia’s governance</h2>



Celestia should abandon proof-of-stake consensus for “proof-of-governance” (PoG), argues Celestia co-founder John Adler in an ambitious new governance <a href="https://x.com/jadler0/status/1936813032140636643">proposal</a>.



If passed, the following material changes will be enacted:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>TIA issuance will be cut by about 20x, or 95%.</li>



<li>Delegated staking and liquid staking contracts will be phased out. No more onchain governance.</li>



<li>All TIA issuance will be routed solely to validators as payment for running nodes.</li>



<li>Validators would be picked by off-chain governance, because Celestia lacks general execution and is not suited to support onchain token voting. </li>



<li>Network fees would be burned as a form of value accrual to TIA token holders. Celestia’s protocol fees amount to <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/celestia?dashboard=138">$100–$300</a> daily.</li>
</ol>



TL;DR: Reduce Celestia’s constant emissions in a bid to stave off its declining price action (see chart).



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfSvCeKCWgEbxevKpPXgnWus4Riw0ipBzOlV5NxZJXyWREgS2YblbE3G60fXhrjPF6SRSni1lOALN0SjbEic-fYrINK9x6YkolncwKAfXNjP-w1UUfNYyNFV0ePpOReClVD0MoV?key=cRSo9z7KKeL8tZciBY-DLw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/celestia?dashboard=134">Blockworks Research</a>.</figcaption></figure>



The proposal challenges many common sense “wisdoms” of Ethereum thought, namely where a chain’s “economic security” is derived from (not slashing), the framing of PoS as really permissioned “proof-of-authority,” and how to think about “blockchain profitability.” Expect Ethereum maxis to be triggered.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SyrupUSDC growth</h2>



Maple’s yield-bearing stablecoin SyrupUSDC is now at a market cap of $780 million, making it the fastest-growing stablecoin this year.



Users deposit USDC onto the platform, which is then used to issue overcollateralized loans to institutional borrowers. The interest charged on those loans is resulting in above average APYs of about 10% today (6.4% base yield +3.5% Drip points), driving SyrupUSDC’s rapid growth.



You can also forgo points to snag a <a href="https://app.pendle.finance/trade/markets/0x9a63fa80b5ddfd3cab23803fdb93ad2c18f3d5aa/swap?view=pt&amp;chain=ethereum">9.2%</a> PT fixed yield on Pendle instead.



About $587 million is used across DeFi, mainly 55% in Spark and 19% in Pendle.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcjOKU0Y9_fXBG5bWNQwjMk2DQKWWs9NpxTbl0ymw9c9uktQr7seFQ99V8g68hy9po0-e3bF8G6ydZ4EeDvKgf4x1O8GqkxftYu3-ITL9x3u5dxyRYFLqrQV8ax3CWGXtL7mFsDcw?key=cRSo9z7KKeL8tZciBY-DLw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://dune.com/jonaso/syrup-usdc-usage-in-defi">Dune</a>.</figcaption></figure>







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Polymarket ‘politics’ markets surge, Celestia rethinks consensus

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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FC Barcelona, the Spanish soccer club Forbes values at <a href="https://www.forbes.com/teams/barcelona/">$5.65 billion</a>, is releasing a wallet for its upcoming NFTs called Barça.Pass as part of its digital strategy.&nbsp;



Anyone with a Barça ID can now claim a wallet and will ultimately be able to use it to create an FC Barcelona avatar NFT, customize the character with official merch, and collect other types of digital items in anticipation of an upcoming FCB mobile racing game.



Crypto infra firm Futureverse set up the <a href="https://www.barcapass.com/">Barça Pass</a>. Futureverse CEO Aaron McDonald told me that the NFT avatars will exist on the gaming-focused L1 blockchain Root and can be equipped with “semi-fungible” wearable digital items. Root is EVM-compatible and uses XRP as its gas token as well as the XRPL XLS-20 NFT standard.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeskw6A0GOdCv2brTn2-JgsOvhES1Z3WYX7PD2ik9yUFV9eKPWM3BL-ERmJLuPxd_M4ZhCYVMw19Bl6JxYkaDVSDwj24Iie_20MIeBJA3EIaPt58qMFetpXs0u9_hfBW509T3lCRw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/></figure>



Wearables will be purchasable via FCB’s Shopify integration, McDonald explained.&nbsp;



Traders will also be able to buy or sell FCB digital items on marketplaces like Tradeverse that are integrated with the Root chain’s ecosystem, and can buy those items with crypto like ROOT or XRP.&nbsp;



Over 11 million Barça IDs had already been created before the launch, according to the <a href="https://www.fcbarcelona.com/en/club/news/4290230/bara-media-launches-barapass-its-first-digital-wallet-to-connect-with-fans-worldwide-in-collaboration-with-futureverse">post</a> from FCB.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXedWTjbZYwto09EPJeLRT3tQIpsOpP50MdpxJRkUUsuqZVYGEJwZJuWApUMCi7Gbg73TF4tSQZbBHCPrjBpwpRYXV-nJ33gk49NfHO6yBJ1ghnvvn4BWcX4CDQMCTKVcXIJ8meqkw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: FC Barcelona image teasing the upcoming avatars.</figcaption></figure>



The wallet won’t just be a wrapper to hold your avatar, though. McDonald told me the Pass will support “a wide range of onchain experiences and applications that developers build.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeYfDHGq4QmaKzk4X_LkCo2H7EqPWix7kgyoodvVPzerpuqsSwRAfDcAoLSh1TbyKsvMzp3m17nvVB_DupllMSviOkxCy3F8OvYTy178ZwO-i3lVBC6C2y84_UzpsElDlYavS67Jw?key=FusYrD0ftfVNux1Kj-6oIA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: Teaser image of FCB’s anticipated racing game.</figcaption></figure>



FCB has previously lent its name to different (non-crypto) mobile games over the years, including an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmg0qoB1DvQ">endless runner</a> mobile game roughly a decade ago and even a cooking game in 2018.&nbsp;



Last year, it <a href="https://www.mundodeportivo.com/us/en/soccer/20240724/695812/barca-introduces-barca-games-its-innovative-worldwide-video-game-platform-nrt.html">launched</a> a mobile minigame app called Barça Games, but that app is no longer available on the Google Play Store.



Back in 2020, FCB tried its hand at crypto with an FC Barcelona fan token, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/fc-barcelona-fan-token">BAR</a>, on Chiliz.&nbsp;



That token hit a market cap of nearly $125 million in 2021 — and today sits at $13.2 million.



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FC Barcelona unveils Barca Pass crypto wallet, NFT avatars

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Crossover’s officially expanding to the United States.&nbsp;



I spoke to CEO Brandon Mulvihill about the move, institutional interest, and the rise of over-the-counter (OTC) trading.&nbsp;



It’s probably already pretty obvious that this change is happening because of the shifting environment in the United States. Mulvihill told me it’s the perfect time for the team to enter the US markets — because it’s obviously a more favorable regulatory environment, but also because it looks like institutional interest is really picking up.&nbsp;



“Almost the day after the election, the US institutions were calling us immediately,” he told me. Mulvihill and his other cofounders started their careers in TradFi, so they’re pretty familiar with both crypto and the more, well, traditional side of finance.&nbsp;



And, with CrossX — its electronic communications network — Crossover does stand out as over-the-counter (OTC) trading picks up in crypto.&nbsp;



“One of the big drivers we see internationally is that people are getting out of — especially the crypto-native market makers and…quant hedge fund — they&#8217;re moving away from the on-exchange world into OTC trading, which should not be surprising, because if we look at the foreign exchange market, the same thing happened,” he said. Crossover is also the “largest OTC destination cleared by Hidden Road.”



He noted that even banks, which Mulvihill expects to be one of the “slowest financial institutions to the market” are already making headway, with the JPMorgan <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/jpmorgan-to-pilot-deposit-token-jpmd-on-coinbase-linked-public-blockchain?srnd=phx-crypto">announcement</a> about JPMD and stablecoin progress by the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/crypto-stablecoin-big-banks-a841059e?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAhSMoPcmOmAKC-LFtF9vIAkvrsxT32tv3mKrYUR72SV9gSZBrgax_8_krstsXk%3D&amp;gaa_ts=6851c701&amp;gaa_sig=IHNDW_Km5xkDw3GBlDQ_9AXzhaafufpXBIoNHObggT2BXLuH_1mGRRUUdjMMz65KqL944JKxPRcn80kwkinL9w%3D%3D">likes of Bank of America</a>.



“They are all aggressively, from what we see, building out or finally finalizing battle plans,” he said, reiterating that he still thinks there’ll be a “little bit of time before [banks] come in.”



Add to that the regulatory changes on the horizon. Mulvihill told me that the Crossover team has offered comments on the market structure bill, which is still working its way through DC. He told me he’s heard that it could come between August to the end of the year, though he was cautious to actually predict a timeline.&nbsp;



But the bill itself “changes the game,” he said, calling it “the most positive thing that, I think, has happened in crypto since the ETFs were launched.”



“As a result, what we&#8217;re going to see are mainstream, blue-chip financial institutions coming in waves. I think we&#8217;re going to see M&amp;A explode. I think we&#8217;re going to see investment explode. I think you&#8217;re going to see a real explosion of new customers into the space as a result of this bill.”



And this just reiterates the market potential for Crossover.



“We just fundamentally don&#8217;t believe that the institutional market can grow orders of magnitude in its current market structure form,” Mulvihill noted. Instead, it’ll evolve from here. Just like crypto has pushed TradFi to evolve, which is perhaps why Crossover is striking while the iron is heating up and moving into the US.&nbsp;



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Why Crossover is expanding into the US

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Now that the US regulatory climate around crypto has shifted, some, like a16z’s Miles Jennings, have declared that crypto foundations like those set up in the Cayman Islands are no longer necessary and should be a thing of the past.



Jennings, who is the venture firm’s head of policy and general counsel, <a href="https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/end-foundation-era-crypto/">wrote</a> in a recent blog post that foundations became standard initially to increase decentralization. But over time, he argues, foundations’ lack of economic incentives, combined with existing legal and economic constraints, have made it difficult for the nonprofits to be productive or broadly financially successful.



“Most foundation setups require projects to spend upwards of $500,000 and several months working with an army of lawyers and accountants. This not only slows innovation, it’s cost prohibitive for small startups,” Jennings said.&nbsp;



“The situation has gotten so bad that it’s now increasingly difficult to even find attorneys with experience setting up foreign foundation structures, because many have given up their practices. Why? Because they now just collect fees as professional board members on dozens of crypto foundations,” he argued.



Jennings concluded that companies are just better. Foundations have turned into controlling entities, but could evolve into other formats like Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Associations (DUNAs), while developer firms could become Public Benefit Corporations (PBCs).&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">I&#39;ve never been more optimistic about the chances of market structure legislation passing in the U.S. It&#39;s a great time to be building in crypto in America. <a href="https://t.co/ZO8HjVrErS">https://t.co/ZO8HjVrErS</a>&mdash; miles jennings (@milesjennings) <a href="https://twitter.com/milesjennings/status/1932883189443539059?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 11, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



How do other blockchain attorneys feel about crypto foundations, especially when they have historically been set up to address regulatory and taxation concerns?&nbsp;



&#8220;Foundations for token issuances are neither needed nor would they be particularly effective in instances where there was a concern whether or not the token constitutes a security,” David Otto, managing partner at Martin Davis PLLC who led defense in the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/files/litigation/litreleases/2025/stip26299.pdf">recently-dismissed</a> SEC lawsuit against DragonChain, told me in a message.



“There generally is no longer the perception that one needs to create a foundation (other than for specific jurisdictions that provide for tax benefits) in connection with a token issuance,” Otto added.



Moish Peltz, co-managing partner of Falcon, Rappaport &amp; Berkman&#8217;s <a href="https://frblaw.com/practices/digital-assets/">Digital Assets Group</a>, said that offshore foundations can still have a role in crypto, but “rationale is narrowing as US rules catch up.”



Peltz suggested that US teams should look into starting US-based UNAs or DUNAs instead — or set up an LLC as a for-profit option.&nbsp;



He advises to “only look offshore if (a) a significant share of contributors cannot participate under U.S. securities or tax laws, or (b) the project’s community is already truly global and wants a neutral flag. Even then, they should expect to satisfy disclosure, KYC, and board-independence standards they would face here.”



“The real barrier is the tax,” Peltz continued. “Token treasuries often appreciate before they are spent. If the IRS provides clearer deferral or charitable-like treatment for bona-fide decentralized or public-goods projects, many of the remaining reasons to go offshore will compress.”



Tyler Harttraft, a partner at Bull Blockchain Law, told me that crypto foundations remain essential for US teams launching tokens. He noted that the tax breaks are the main reason crypto has been drawn to Cayman Islands foundations in the past, and this will likely remain the preferred pathway until new US regulation is solidified.



“The current US regulatory landscape offers no clear issuance pathway: Although the SEC is exploring exemptive relief and Congress has proposed measures like the Clarity Act and the Digital Asset Market Structure draft, none have yet created a formal safe-harbor for new token launches. As a result, advising a crypto firm to establish a separate non-US foundation remains the only reliable option for legal and tax certainty,” Harttraft said.



Video streaming- and data storage-focused network Livepeer is one example of a crypto ecosystem that just launched a foundation earlier this month in the current climate.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Today is a big day in the <a href="https://twitter.com/Livepeer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Livepeer</a> ecosystem, as we share the launch of the new Livepeer Foundation! 8 years ago, at the dawn of the project, we opted not to take the Foundation path, for many of the reasons that <a href="https://twitter.com/milesjennings?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@milesjennings</a> from A16Z Crypto recently articulated in a… <a href="https://t.co/a99WApcJP3">https://t.co/a99WApcJP3</a>&mdash; Doug Petkanics (@petkanics) <a href="https://twitter.com/petkanics/status/1930642003156435232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



“We’re creating something leaner, more focused, and better suited to the actual needs of a mature, multi-entity, decentralized network,” Livepeer cofounder and CEO Doug Petkanics told me in a message. “Many foundations have become bloated intermediaries that exist as a regulatory workaround, and neither accelerate decentralization nor improve execution.”



The current political climate suggests foundations may not be needed for much longer, which would be a drastic change from the status quo of the past decade.&nbsp;



While some foundations serve more of a purpose than others, setting up something leaner or doing away with the model entirely would increase competition and aid scrappy startup builders in the US looking to bring tokenization to their consumer apps. Progress!



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Do crypto teams still need offshore foundations?

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The crypto boom isn’t just boosting interest in the US — it’s boosting interest across the world.&nbsp;



Gemini’s <a href="https://www.gemini.com/blog/introducing-the-2025-global-state-of-crypto-report">State of Crypto Report </a>found in a survey that Singapore has the highest ownership rate at 28%, a 2% increase from last year. Meanwhile, the UK jumped to 24% from 18%.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfxv2VQ625o8XlVfySP4OKHmk-iyrHcZNRgwDgcsUeamR9jtVvpDKPsNekgefKAf7xtKU51HHU6H4cz-6rPIrfoiYfcIu6VwzEiEmSWCLKbOrS-8qf48ZuY5o2QISTfxpcjjk2z2g?key=TYYZLjQ4yNoAz4KPY-S4Qw" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Gemini</figcaption></figure>



It’s obviously hard to deny the impact of the US opening up, and that was cited as a big reason for folks across the world who are crypto-curious but not ready to commit to owning any (yet).&nbsp;



“Nearly a quarter (23%) of non-crypto owners in the US said the launch of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve makes them more confident in the value of cryptocurrency. This sentiment was echoed by respondents in the UK and Singapore, where about one in five (21% and 19%, respectively) non-owners said they were more confident due to President Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” the report said.&nbsp;



But what I found to be the most interesting nugget was actually about memecoins. Before you roll your eyes, hear me out.&nbsp;



France is the leader for memecoin adoption so far this year. A whopping 67% of French crypto investors own memecoins, which is pretty firmly above the 59% of Singapore investors and 58% of Italians that own memecoins.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXchlyh7HK3xPnkFgV7tCb6jejr__VuqA0hAGjkwdyyhcyBf6Cvnj_hz64SIM6ZHqRDz8XzLy1DjZolYVcm95fChsq6tutNrgN_qV7YvuB1Q-UymiM1Sq6OH0v4f2QEqht23-zFn?key=TYYZLjQ4yNoAz4KPY-S4Qw" alt=""/></figure>



The survey also found that memecoins seem to be working as an onramp for investors, with 94% of folks surveyed reporting that they own both memecoins and other crypto.&nbsp;



“In the US, 31% of investors who own both memecoins and traditional cryptocurrencies report that they purchased their memecoins first, followed by 28% in Australia and the UK, 23% in Singapore, 22% in Italy, and 19% in France,” the report said.



But for the more buttoned-up investors, ETFs have helped act as an onramp. In the US specifically, Gemini found that two in five US investors surveyed own crypto ETFs. The products have also seen a jump over in Italy, United Kingdom, Australia and Singapore.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf4zYGergdhuuojVnbmuI7hK0GiUAH_zDP4xrBGHmEUa0bXSXOzgr_J90KP3PIaV4tF_u9h7dDaDZMobr_SSLVyR8IDM4TtB5JDsMPNYTZ6zxM6ecxCtTzhy-fNzebA08mGqEiKWA?key=TYYZLjQ4yNoAz4KPY-S4Qw" alt=""/></figure>



I always caveat these types of reports by cautioning that they’re giving a glimpse into survey results, which means we may not be seeing the full picture for a lot of the momentum we’ve seen.&nbsp;



However, there’s no denying that the results give us an interesting snapshot of the appetite for crypto at this point.&nbsp;



It’s also nice to see how global adoption continues, something we’ve been touching on but haven’t had a chance to delve into. Admittedly, right now it’s pretty easy to get lost in the US narratives as they continue to dominate.&nbsp;



One thing’s for sure, though: Love ‘em or hate ‘em, memecoins have managed to stick, not only as a way to onboard folks but as a way to allow investors to diversify their crypto holdings if they’re feeling, well, adventurous.&nbsp;&nbsp;



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